Stat of the Day, 4th July 2017

Monday’s Result :

2.00 Pontefract : Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 In touch on inside headway over 1f out, ridden to challenge and every chance inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by a neck.

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

8.20 Stratford…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

No Such Number4/1 BOG

Why?

This 9yr old gelding has won his last four contests, all under today’s jockey Dale Irving, all over fences going left handed on good ground wearing a tongue tie and cheek pieces, so despite another rise in the weights, conditions are well suited for him.

Male handicappers aged 5 to 10 running off a mark of 100 to 125 who won a novice chase last time out in the previous 45 days are 143/588 (24.3% SR) for 98.2pts (+16.7% ROI), including…

  • those rated (OR) 109-121 are 85/325 (26.2%) for 87.4pts (+26.9%)
  • over trips of 2.5m to 3m : 69/311 (22.2%) for 63.9pts (+20.5%)
  • those who last ran 6 to 20 days earlier : 82/277 (29.6%) for 70.1pts (+25.3%)
  • on Good ground : 55/210 (26.2%) for 60.6pts (+28.9%)
  • in the May-July period : 43/134 (32.1%) for 91.6pts (+68.4%)
  • and here at Stratford : 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.9pts (+131.2%)

And in addition to the above, since the start of 2013, trainer Maurice Barnes’ handicappers who won LTO are 13/50 (26% SR) for 52.8pts (+105.6% ROI), from which…

  • chasers are 10/32 (31.3%) for 54.3pts (+169.8%)
  • 8-11 yr olds are 9/30 (30%) for 57.7pts (+192.3%)
  • those last seen 11-20 days ago are 9/26 (34.6%) for 36pts (+138.5%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 4/1 : 8/17 (47.1%) for 11pts (+64.5%)
  • and those ridden by Dale Irving are 3/4 (75%) for 106.3pts (+265.8%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on No Such Number @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.20 Stratford…

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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