Race of the Day – 5 Jul

Race of the Day – 19:30 Bath

There is just a small field for this useful looking handicap on firm ground at Bath, but they are very closely grouped on official ratings and it looks an open affair.

The Mick Channon trained Pattie is the bottom weight, but interestingly has the highest Speed Rating out of the six runners. She was a winner last time out at Pontefract, when seeming very well suited by the drop back to a mile, and although she has been raised six pounds for that win, the even firmer surface here today looks sure to suit.

Adam Kirby rides the outsider of the six, Ahlan Bil Zain, who is around a 12/1 shot. Kirby has a quite brilliant long term record here at Bath, meaning he is always worth a second look. Over the last five years he’s had 24 winners (22.86%) and 50 places (47.62%) from 105 runners, for level stakes profits of 59.92 and 64.98 respectively.

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I’vegotthepower looks easily the most suited to today’s conditions when looking at the Instant Expert report, as he has four sections of green, including having won here in the past. He was also a winner last time out over a mile at Goodwood, and although he has been raised six pounds for that win, he certainly looks to be heading in the right direction. He is also the only runner in the field to have had a run (he is 1/2) on seriously fast ground.

From looking at the Pace report we can see that early leaders here over this distance have an excellent record, with 22.57% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 66.94.

I’vegotthepower is a confirmed front runner and has easily the highest pace score based on the last four runs for each horse. He also has plenty of stamina, so I expect Jim Crowley to go off very fast indeed and run the finish out of a few of these.

If this is a very strongly run race, I think it will suit Pattie very nicely. She is a hold up horse with plenty of strength in the finish, so I think John Egan will stay patient and wait for as long as possible before making his move, and as long as he gets a clear run (which would be hoped for in such a small field), then he has an excellent chance.

The Trainer Statistics report is available to all registered users on a Wednesday, and today it highlights what an excellent long term record Brian Meehan has here at Bath. Over the past five years he’s had 16 winners (29.09%) and 23 places (41.82%) from 55 runners, for level stakes profits of 75.98 and 77.46 respectively. This is a very strong record and shows that when he sends a runner here, it should be taken very seriously.

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