Stat of the Day, 7th July 2017

Thursday’s Result :

2.00 Haydock : La Celebs Ville @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 Tracked leaders, driven to challenge 2f out, weakened inside final furlong.

Friday’s pick goes in the…

4.10 Doncaster…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Pleasant Surprise3/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4 handicap over a mile and a half for fillies aged 3 and over and we have a 3 yr old who was a winner over this trip two starts ago before being beaten into 5th place over 1m2f last time out.

That was 22 days ago and in her defence, it was a Listed race and she was far from disgraced. Now back up in trip and down in class for her handicap debut, I fancy her to get back to winning ways and she features in several of my micro-systems today, so I’ll try and keep this brief!

Firstly we have trainer Luca Cumani and his record here on Town Moor : 36 winners from 136 (21.7% SR) for 27.3pts (+16.4% ROI) since 2008 and this includes of relevance today…

  • at trips of 7f and beyond : 36/126 (52.4%) for 37.3pts (+29.6%)
  • in handicaps : 24/105 (22.9%) for 33pts (+31.4%)
  • 21-45 days after their last outing : 24/84 (28.6%) for 45.2pts (+53.8%)
  • females are 18/54 (33.3%) for 40.7pts (+75.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 15/47 (31.9%) for 21pts (+44.7%)

AND…female handicappers at 7f and further, 21-45 days after their last run are 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 23.2pts (+178.1%) with class 4 runners winning 3 of 7.

More recently (ie since the start of 2015), when Mr Cumani has employed the talents of jockey Jamie Spencer here at Doncaster, the partnership has won 4 of 14 (28.6% SR) for 7.3pts at an ROI of 52.1% with handicappers winning 3 of 8 (37.5%) for 10.55pts (+131.9%)

And then we have the case of a handicap debut, since 2008 the 2-4 yr old Cumani handicap debutants are 66/281 (23.5% SR) for 118.7pts (+42.3% ROI) including…

  • those up in trip by a furlong or more are 34/140 (24.3%) for 58.9pts (+42.1%)
  • those racing over 10 to 12 furlongs are 35/136 (25.7%) for 54.4pts (+40%)
  • at Class 4 : 27/109 (24.8%) for 12.1pts (+11.1%)
  • 16-30 days since last run : 28/108 (25.9%) for 68.9pts (+63.8%)
  • those dropping in class are 16/46 (34.8%) for 61.3pts (+133.3%)
  • here at Doncaster : 8/17 (47.1%) for 31.2pts (+183.4%)
  • those who raced at Class 1 LTO are 4/16 (25%) for 23.7pts (+148%)
  • and those ridden by Jamie Spencer are 3/13 (23.1%) for 5pts at an ROI of 38.3%

There’s quite a bit more to be honest, but I wouldn’t want to bore you, so I’ll call it a day here…

…with…a 1pt win bet on Pleasant Surprise @ 3/1 BOG which was on offer from Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power at 6.45pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 11/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Doncaster…

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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