Stat of the Day, 13th July 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

8.55 Kempton : Hackney Road @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 Mid-division, headway over 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, ran on, held close home, beaten by a neck.

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

7.45 Epsom…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Tapis Libre9/4 BOG

Why?

A winner over this trip at a higher grade under today’s jockey, when last seen 26 days ago and now drops in class for a return to Epsom to take a fourth crack at this very race, having won it twice already.

That fact alone sent me scurrying through his career stats and as such today’s selection is what I tend to call a “profile pick”, you might call it horses for courses or similar and it could certainly be seen as an extension of the excellent Geegeez Shortlist report.

Taps Libre’s record on the Flat is very good indeed and he’s profitable to follow, his 12 wins from 61 (19.7% SR) have yielded some 21.03pts profit at an attractive ROI of 34.5%, but in terms of today’s contest, he has some superb numbers behind him, namely…

  • in handicaps : 12/58 (20.7%) for 24.03pts (+41.4%)
  • 6-45 days after he last ran : 11/49 (22.5%) for 24.3pts (+49.5%)
  • in fields of 5-13 runners : 12/42 (28.6%) for 40pts (+95.3%)
  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 12/24 (50%) for 58.03pts (+241.8%)
  • over 1m4f/1m4.5f : 7/23 (30.4%) for 20.09pts (+87.3%)
  • when ridden by today’s jockey, Joanna Mason : 7/15 (46.7%) for 28.2pts (+188.1%)
  • after a win LTO : 5/12 (41.7%) for 20.7pts (+172.3%)
  • in the month of July : 4/12 933.3%) for 9.2pts (+76.5%)
  • when sent off as favourite : 3/3 (100%) for 7.78pts (+259.4%)
  • here at Epsom : 2/3 (66.7%) for 4.16pts (+138.6%), all over course and distance and all in this very race!

AND…from the above : Priced at 10/1 and shorter in a 5-13 runner handicap 6-45 days after he last ran : 11/16 (68.75% SR) for 57.25pts (+357.8% ROI), from which…

  • over 1m4f/1m4.5f : 6/8 (75%) for 26.31pts (+328.9%)
  • under Joanna Mason : 6/7 (85.7%) for 27.43pts (+391.9%)
  • and under Joanna Mason over 1m4f/1m4.5f : 5/6 (83.3%) for 24.8pts (+413.4%)

…justifying…a 1pt win bet on Tapis Libre9/4 BOG which was available from Betway, Betfair, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and SkyBet at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.45 Epsom..

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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