Stat of the Day, 15th July 2017

Friday’s Result :

4.00 Ascot : Camerone @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 2/1 Tracked leaders on outside, took keen hold, ridden over 3f out, edged left and lost place over 2f out, well beaten over 1f out.

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.15 Newmarket…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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On Her Toes4/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has 3 wins and 3 places from her 7 starts to date, including 3 wins and a place from 4 runs after a break of 30 days or less and a 2 from 2 record when running in July.

She’s a former winner of a Listed contest and has also made the frame in both another Listed race, but also in a Group 3 and now drops down into Class 2 company, where I’m hoping she’ll have too much quality for her rivals.

Her trainer William Haggas is in fine form of late, with a record this month so far of 14 wins from 40 (35% SR) for profits of 28.53pts at an ROI of 71.3%, whilst in all Flat handicaps with runners priced at Evens to 10/1 since 2012, he is 168/697 (24.1% SR) for 106.9pts (+15.3% ROI), of which…

  • those who last ran 6-60 days ago are 139/571 (24.3%) for 98.4pts (+17.2%)
  • on Good to Firm : 64/264 (24.2%) for 35.8pts (+13.5%)
  • fillies are 73/261 (28%) for 47.3pts (+18.1%)

Jockey William Buick is also in good touch, having ridden 10 winners from 36 over the last fortnight and he rides this track very well with a record here of 50 from 233 (21.5%) for 73.9pts (+31.7%), including…

  • 30/109 (27.5%) for 117.7pts (+108%) on good to firm ground
  • 15/69 (21.7%) for 89.1pts (+129.1%) on female horses
  • and 9/39 (23.1%) for 13.1pts (+33.5%) at Class 2

So, we’ve a quality horse dropping in class, ridden by an in-form jockey with a good record on this track, riding for a trainer who does well in handicaps and isn’t short of winners right now…

…which all points to…a 1pt win bet on On Her Toes4/1 BOG which was available from over a dozen firms at 7.20pm on Friday. Those of you with an unrestricted Betfair account however, should take the 9/2 BOG offered there. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Newmarket..

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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