Stat of the Day, 20th July 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

3.25 Lingfield : Mamselle @ 7/2 BOG WON at 10/3 Tracked leaders, not much room 3f out, led over 2f out, clear inside final furlong, stayed on well to win by 4.5 lengths.

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

7.35 Epsom…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Star of Lombardy @ 3/1 BOG


A fairly short and straightforward explanation for this one.

Epsom is quirky at best and although this is no Derby or Oaks, previous course experience is very handy to have here and our runner is one just two in the contest to have been here before and ours is the only course winner on display.

That win came over course and distance last time out, a fortnight ago and her career stats suggest she’ll feel right at home again today, as she’s currently…

  • 3 from 9 in this grade
  • 3 from 8 running 5 to 15 days after her last run
  • 3 from 7 in fields of 5 to 7 runners
  • 3 from 6 at odds of 5/2 to 4/1
  • and 2 from 6 under Franny Norton who also rode her here last time out.

Added to the above, we have a small dataset regarding the trainer/jockey/track combination as Mark Johnston’s handicappers priced at 10/1 and shorter here at Epsom are 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 9.95pts (+124.4% ROI) profit when riden by Franny Norton, whose own record here at Epsom with horses priced at 12/1 and shorter stands at 4/10 (40%) for 26.17pts (+261.7%) since the start of last season alone.

…and so, it’s…a 1pt win bet on Star of Lombardy @ 3/1 BOG which was available in several places at 6.30pm on Wednesday with some 7/2 BOG on offer at Bet365 for those able to do so!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.35 Epsom…

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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