Stat of the Day, 26th July 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

7.00 Chelmsford : Udontdodou @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Held up mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway 1f out, kept on to take 3rd place inside final furlong, no impression.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

5.30 Catterick…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Swansway @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance a week ago in an amateur riders’ contest, showing he can get the job done without some wily old pro cajoling him along, which is just as well as this race is for apprentice jockeys!

He’s up 6lbs for that win LTO, but today’s rider takes 5 off, so we shouldn’t be weighted out of contention at least, but I’m really more interested in how this race fits trainer Mick Easterby’s MO, as this horse flagged up in several different parts of my database when I was compiling my daily shortlist, so here goes…

Let’s start with Mr Easterby’s recent record at this track, shall we? Well, over the last 3 (including this one) seasons, his Class 5/6 handicappers are 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 21.45pts (+58% ROI) profit here in North Yorkshire, from which…

  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 10.9pts (+47.4%)
  • those priced at 11/4 to 15/2 are 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.25pts (+127.6%)
  • those last seen 2 to 15 days ago are 6/18 (33.3%) for 20.73pts (+115.2%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 5/10 (50%) for 16.05pts (+160.5%)
  • over this 1m4f C&D : 2/4 (50%) for 9.26pts (+231.5%)
  • and LTO winners are also 2/4 (50%), but for 8.93pts (+223.3%)

Which in itself is fairly compelling, but let’s add some more meat to the bones by looking at the yard’s quick returners ie those who last raced just 3 to 7 days earlier and over the last two years, such runners are 18/77 (23.4% SR) for 53.8pts (+69.8% ROI) : another set of impressive figures, which include…

  • handicappers at 18/75 (24%) for 55.8pts (+74.4%)
  • males at 17/65 (26.2%) for 59.5pts (+91.5%)
  • those priced 9/4 to 12/1 are 18/52 (34.6%) for 78.8pts (+151.5%)
  • at class 6 : 4/16 (25%) for 15.84pts (+99%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/12 (25%) for 3.15pts (+26.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/14 (35.7%) for 14.8pts (+105.6%)

But wait, there’s yet more to come…for, in handicaps since 2010, Mick Easterby’s runners priced at 11/4 to 8/1 who won LTO and are now running at a venue where they have previously won over course and distance = 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 17.7pts (+50.6% ROI), and of those 35 runners, those who won over C&D LTO are 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.9pts (+60.5%)

And finally (!) before I go…as this is an apprentices’ race, the Easterby handicappers ridden by a 5lb claimer at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 are 37/215 (17.2% SR) for 113.5pts (+52.8% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which…

  • at Class 6 : 14/37 (37.8%) for 82.1pts (+221.9&%)
  • LTO winners are 10/35 (28.6%) for 43.7pts (+124.7%)
  • running over the same C&D as LTO : 5/17 (29.4%) for 12.3pts (+72.2%)
  • here at Catterick : 6/12 (50%) for 31.2pts (+259.6%)
  • running over the same C&D as LTO win : 2/5 (40%) for 3.37pts (+67.4%)

…all of which points us to…a 1pt win bet on Swansway @ 9/2 BOG which was available in at least half a dozen places at 6.00pm on Monday, whilst those able to do should grab the 5/1 BOG offered by Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.30 Catterick…

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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