Stat of the Day, 1st August 2017

Monday’s Result :

4.30 Ayr : Aprovado @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong.

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

8.00 Perth…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wot A Shot @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This one came to my attention, as his name seemed to pop up all over my databases/shortlists on Monday afternoon, so I’m just going to give you some of those reasons right now…

Initially, the glaringly obvious was his course and distance win under today’s jockey, Craig Nichol last time out almost four weeks ago, which then led me to look at the trainer, Nicky Richards.

It then became apparent that Nicky’s got a good record here at Perth, as I’m sure many of you will know already (I’m sure I’ve mentioned it more than once myself!). That record currently reads as 19 winners from 98 (19.4% SR) for profits of 47pts (+48% ROI) since the start of 2014, from which his hurdlers are 12/67 (17.9%) for 36.5pts (+54.5%).

A closer look at the 67 Richards’ Perth hurdlers show they are…

• 9/56 (16.1%) for 21.8pts (+38.9%) in handicaps
• 6/16 (37.5%) for 38.6pts (+240.9%) over 2m/2m0.5f
• 4/15 (26.7%) for 29.3pts (+195.5%) ridden by Craig Nichol
• 3/12 (25%) for 30.6pts (+255.1%) ridden by Craig Nichol in handicaps
• 4/11 (36.4%) for 35.8pts (+325.2%) in handicaps over 2m/2m0.5f
• and 3/5 (60%) for 37.6pts (+752%) ridden by Craig Nichol in handicaps over 2m/2m0.5f

This horse was also flagged up in my “Summer Jumpers” microsystem, which is basically a short list of trainers who are profitable to follow in the May-September period and in Nicky Richards’ case, since the start of May 2014, his Summer handicap hurdlers priced at 6/1 and shorter are 15/44 (34.1% SR) for 18.5pts (+41.9% ROI).

Those racing over trips of 2m-2m3f are 9/26 (34.6%) for 42.2pts (+162.2%) and those racing over 2m-2m3f at odds of 6/1 and shorter are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 11.2pts (+65.7%).

The next string to today’s bow comes via the fact that since the start of 2008, handicap hurdlers with the CD logo next to their name on the racecard and who were also winners (anywhere, any trip) last time out are 341/1761 (19.4% SR) for 156.3pts (+8.9% ROI), from which…

• those running at the same C&D as that LTO win are 244/1201 (20.3%) for 150.1pts (+12.5%)
• those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 180/967  (18.6%) for 146.4pts (+15.2%)
• on good ground : 119/624 (19.1%) for 115.8pts (+18.6%)
• and here at Perth : 13/57 (22.8%) for 23.9pts (+41.9%)

I could then tell you about the performance of horses who had recently won after a run of unplaced efforts and I could show some data about hurdlers who won LTO within 30 days and so on and so on, but I think you get the picture by now…

…why I’ve selected…a 1pt win bet on Wot A Shot @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Skybet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.00 Perth…

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!