Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

8.25 SandownFlight of Fantasy @ 5/1 BOG still to run Result/report to follow later.

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

6.25 Epsom…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Ya Jammeel @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

Last pick before my holiday (you’ll be well looked after by Steve!) is based around the following…

A 4 yr old gelding coming here on a hat-trick after wins 16 days apart firstly over 1m2f at Chepstow before a step up in trip to win over this course and distance a fortnight ago and whilst this certainly isn’t the Derby, past knowledge of this quirky track is always useful and he’s the only one in this race to have previously won here.

Trainer Mick Channon has had good results with his non-festival handicappers here on the Downs, with 14 winners from 88 (15.9% SR) since 2009, yielding 25.8pts (+29.3% ROI) of level stakes profit, including the following relevant data subsets…

  • at odds fof 8/1 and shorter : 12/56 (21.4%) for 20.7pts (+37%)
  • 11-30 days since last run : 11/47 (23.4%) for 55.95pts (+119%)
  • at Class 5 : 7/35 (20%) for 24.2pts (+69.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/18 (22.2%) for 8.4pts (+46.6%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 6/17 (35.3%) for 24.1pts (+141.6%)
  • LTO winners are 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.66pts (+104.4%)

On top of the above, Mick Channon’s handicappers returning to the scene of a past course and distance triumph and were winners anywhere last time out are 9/39 (23.1% SR) for 18pts (+46% ROI) since 2011, from which…

  • those priced at 6/4 to 9/1 are 9/35 (25.7%) for 22pts (+62.7%)
  • those who last ran 6-20 days ago are 8/32 925%) for 22.18pts (+69.3%)
  • C&D winners LTO are 7/27 (25.9%) for 20.7pts (+76.6%)
  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 10.3pts (+44.8%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/11 (45.5%) for 22.1pts (+201%)
  • and here at Epsom : 2/5 (40%) for 10.1pts (+201.8%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Ya Jammeel @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.25 Epsom…

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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