Stat of the Day, 18th August 2017

Thursday’s Result :

6.00 Yarmouth Whosyourhousemate @ 7/2 BOG – 4th at 11/4 : Tracked leader, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, no extra final 100 yards…

Friday’s pick goes in the…

5.30 Catterick

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sellingallthetime @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 5 handicap over 1m4f on Good to Soft ground for 3yo+ horses ridden by amateur riders, so possibly not the best race you’ll see today, but there are reasons to side with a 6 yr old gelding who has already won over course and distance in the past, so let’s have a look…

Firstly, his trainer Mick Appleby is 14/86 (16.3% SR) for 26.1pts (+30.3% ROI) profit at this North Yorkshire track over the last five seasons, including…

  • at this 1m4f C&D : 7/27 (25.9%) for 42.5pts (+157.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/27 (18.5%) for 23.6pts (+87.3%)
  • and at Class 5 over this 1m4f C&D : 3/8 (37.5%) for 30.25pts (+378.2%)

Sellingallthetime now drops down a grade to run in this contest and since 2011, Mick Appleby’s Class 5 Flat handicappers dropping down from Class 4 are 15/88 (17.1% SR) for 66.9pts (+76% ROI), which include…

  • males at 11/58 (19%) for 73.5ts (+126.7%)
  • those running after a short break of 11-30 days are 8/49 (16.3%) for 53.8pts (+109.7%)
  • and males who last ran 11-30 days ago are 5/25 (20%) for 58.9pts (+235.6%)

And as this is an amateur riders’ handicap, jockey bookings are very important as some amateurs are clearly far better than others and if push comes to shove in a tight finish, you know the jockey can make all the difference.

This is why I’m happy to see Serena Brotherton’s name next to our pick, as she’s actually profitable to back blindly in handicaps! Since 2008, she has 80 winners from 440 (18.2% SR) for 147.7pts (+33.6% ROI) profit, which are excellent numbers and in the terms of today’s contest, those figures relate to…

  • her only ride of the day : 74/392 (18.9%) for 165.7pts (+42.3%)
  • in Amateur Riders’ handicaps : 72/385 (18.7%) for 107pts (+27.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 29/143 (20.3%) for 77.4pts (+54.2%)
  • this year alone : 5/31 (16.1%) for 45.1pts (+145.5%)
  • and here at Catterick, she is 3 from 12 (25%) for 2.75pts (+22.9%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Sellingallthetime @ 9/2 BOG which was available with Bet365 , Betfred, Marathon and Totesport at 9.30pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.30 Catterick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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