Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2017

Monday’s Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG – 2nd at 5/2 : Towards rear, pushed along and headway over 2f out, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, kept on one pace, beaten by half a length…

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

3.30 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Prosecution @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

As this is a maiden handicap, there’s obviously no winning form on offer here, making our pick’s recent finishes of 232 the best of this bunch today. Placed in 3 of 4 starts on the Flat so far, either at this level or higher suggests he well just have a little bit too much for his rivals and also interests me because…

…2012-17 / UK Flat / 3-5 yr olds / 7f-1m4f / top 3 finish in each of last 3 races / 2nd or 3rd LTO 6-30 days ago = 308/1447 (21.3% SR) for 282.1pts (+19.5% ROI) including…

  • those last seen 16-30 days back : 190/880 (21.6%) for 252.5pts (+28.7%)
  • LTO runners-up are 191/811 (23.6%) for 136.2pts (+16.8%)
  • Class 5 runners are 125/435 (28.7%) for 62.9pts (+14.5%)

Added to this, we have trainer Hughie Morrison / 2-3 yr old males / Class 3 to 6 Flat handicaps / July to September / 2012-17 = 13/67 (19.4% SR) for 11.5pts (+17.2% ROI), from which…

  • over the last three seasons : 9/42 (21.4%) for 12.93pts (+30.8%)
  • priced at 7/4 to 9/2 : 11/31 (35.5%) for 17.4pts (+56.1%)
  • and in August : 4/22 (18.2%) for 5.07pts (+23%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Prosecution @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Monday, whilst those with an unrestricted Ladbrokes account can get 3/1. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.30 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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