Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

3.30 Brighton : Prosecution @ 11/4 BOG – 2nd at 6/4 : Tracked leaders, ridden to lead narrowly over 1f out, pressed inside final furlong, headed post, beaten by a nose…

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

7.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Phalawarba @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

2 from 5 so far in her short career, all over today’s 7f trip, but 2 from 2 on the All-Weather, including a course and distance success on her only prior visit to Sunbury on Thames. She was also a winner last time out at Wolverhampton a little over 5 weeks ago.

Her trainer Ed Vaughan’s horses are in good touch generally and have already landed 4 wins and 4 places from just 13 efforts this month, whilst here at Kempton since 2009, his runners are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 38.7pts (+148.7% ROI) in Class 4 A/W handicaps.

More recently ie over the last 2 years, he has the following positives to take into this contest…

  • his handicappers are 21/119 (17.7%) for 62.4pts (+52.5%)
  • his runners at 5.5f to 7f are 20/82 (24.4%) for 74pts (+90.3%)
  • in 5.5f to 7f handicaps, they are 14/52 (26.9%) for 63pts (+121.2%)
  • his LTO winners are 7/28 (25%) for 20.8pts (+83.2%)
  • his LTO winners running in a handicap are 6/23 (26.1%) for 16.7pts (+72.5%)
  • and his LTO winners now running in a handicap over 5.5f to 7f are 5/13 (38.5%) for 18.4pts (+141.5%)

Oh, and jockey Adam Beschizza is 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 31.7pts (+288% ROI) on Ed’s horses this year.

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Phalawarba @ 4/1 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & BetVictor at 8.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.15 Kempton 

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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