Stat of the Day, 29th August 2017

Bank Holiday Monday’s Result :

4.05 Cartmel : Morning Royalty @ 7/2 BOG – 3rd at 9/2 : Held up in rear, headway after 14th, no impression last, went 3rd towards finish…

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

5.45 Carlisle:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Rossall @ 3/1 BOG


An opening mark of 76 looks very workable to me about this 2yr old who has shown improvement in each of his three starts to date, finishing as a runner-up over 5f last time out.

That run was at Thirsk 24 days ago and he now drops in class for his handicap debut and becomes of further interest to me, as his trainer Michael Dods’ handicappers dropping down one grade are 48/354 (13.6% SR) for 165.3pts (+46.7% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, with those returning from a short break of 16 to 25 days winning 16 of 101 (15.8%) and making 56.1pts (+55.5%) in the process.

Today’s jockey Paul Mulrennan is Rossall‘s only rider to date, so they’ve already begun to forge an understanding and Paul comes here aiming to add to his tally of 8 Carlisle wins already this season. Those eight wins have come from just 30 rides (26.7% SR) and have rewarded followers with profits of 20.9pts at an ROI of 69.5%. And, from those 30 rides, he is 5/10 (50%) for 21.5pts (+215%) on horses trained by Michael Dods!

And finally, Paul Mulrennan is one of the few jockeys you can regularly trust to get a favourite over the line, as he’s been profitable to follow on favs in each of the past eight seasons, winning 192 times on 500 favourites (38.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 72.2pts (+14.4% ROI), including…

  • in handicaps : 104/308 (33.8%) for 57.3pts (+18.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 93/222 (41.9%) for 43.8pts (+19.7%)
  • and here at Carlisle : 12/31 (38.7%) for 4.95pts (+16%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Rossall @ 3/1 BOG, which was widely available at 8.45pm on Monday, although there was some 10/3 BOG at Ladbrokes.. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Carlisle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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