Stat of the Day, 1st September 2017

Thursday’s Result :

3.40 Bath : Paint @ 3/1 BOG – WON at 5/2 : Keen, soon steadied into mid-division, headway on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, led towards finish…

Friday’s pick goes in the…

4.25 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Helfire @ 5/1 non-BOG or 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old filly has been in decent, consistent form of late, finishing 12133 in her last five outings and she’s 2 from 6 at this trip. That consistency meant that she was flagged up on one of my more successful microsystems, the basic rules (less complicated in reality than in print!) of which are…

…2012-17 / UK Flat / 3-5 yr olds / running at 7f / top 3 in each of last 3 runs / 2nd or 3rd LTO 6-30 days ago…

Now, that might sound quite contrived/niche, but there are actually 379 qualifiers over the last 6 seasons, so the dataset is big enough to trust and with 83 winners (21.9% SR) and 162.8pts (+43% ROI) profit to date, it’s worth following!

More relevant today, from those 379 runners…

  • those last seen 11-25 days ago are 59/263 (22.4%) for 169.7pts (+64.5%)
  • those who were 3rd LTO are 39/167 (23.4%) for 118.1pts (+70.7%)
  • females are 34/125 (27.2%) for 139.9pts (+111.9%)
  • 4 yr olds are 18/76 (23.7%) for 29pts (+38.2%)
  • in fillies’ only races : 21/69 (30.4%) for 100.9pts (+146.2%)
  • and here at Sandown : 4/15 (26.7%) for 35.7pts (+237.8%)

On top of this, her breeding lends further reassurance to the pick, as offspring of Archipenko are 26/158 (16.5% SR) for 240.5pts (+152.2% ROI) racing over this 7f trip since the start of 2014, with his daughters winning 14 of 70 (20%) for 176.8pts (+252.6%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Helfire @ 5/1 non-BOG or 9/2 BOG, which were both available at 6.00pm on Thursday: the choice is yours! For what it’s worth, I’m on with Betfred/Totesport who are non-BOG until morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.25 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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