Stat of the Day, 4th September 2017

Saturday’s Result :

6.00 Hamilton : Whatsthemessage @ 11/4 BOG – WON at 2/1 : Tracked leader, ridden 2f out, driven inside final furlong, stayed on to lead close home…

Monday’s pick goes in the…

5.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Black Caesar @ 11/2 BOG


This 6 yr old gelding has finished in the first three home in each of his last six runs, so was clearly thriving ahead of a 65-day break taken after a narrow defeat at Windsor last time out.

He was a runner-up that day, beaten by just three parts of a length staying on strongly over 6f, so I’m expecting the rest and increased yardage to both be to his advantage under the same jockey and off the same mark as that run, now at a venue where he’s a former course and distance winner.

Black Caesar is trainer Philip Hide’s only runner of the day but he was 1 from 1 on Sunday when also winning the 5.00 at Brighton with today’s jockey, so I’m hoping he repeats that feat today. That win took his overall record here at Brighton to 14 from 58 (24.1% SR) for 25.5pts (+44% ROI) profit, with his handicappers winning 13 of 50 (26%) for 32pts (+64%).

And of those 50 Hide/Brighton ‘cappers…

  • males are 10/35 (28.6%) for 24.6pts (+70.2%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 11/29 (37.9%) for 33.6pts (+115.9%)
  • Class 5 runners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 13.5pts (+70.9%)
  • those racing over this 7f trip are 4/15 (26.7%) for 16.5pts (+110%)
  • those who were last seen 46-200 days ago are 5/10 (50%) for 29.58pts (+295.8%)
  • and those who were runners-up LTO are 3/5 (60%) for 6.95pts (+139%)

Plus, over the last two seasons at all tracks, Philip Hide’s runners racing after a break of 25 days or more are 14 from 65 (21.5% SR) for 116.5pts (+179.2% ROI), with handicappers winning 11 of 48 (22.9%) for 115.8pts (+241.3%)

…providing us with… a 1pt win bet on Black Caesar @ 11/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, SkyBet & 10Bet at 4.50pm on Sunday: the choice is yours! For what it’s worth, I’m on with Sky. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.00 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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