Stat of the Day, 9th September 2017
Friday’s Result :
3.15 Ascot : Fire Brigade @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 : Held up in last pair in touch, switched towards stands side rail and headway under pressure inside final 2f, went 2nd when ridden over 1f out, stayed on to press winner inside final furlong, just held by a neck…
Saturday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Astrum @ 7/2 BOG
Why?
This 7yr old looked like returning to something approaching his best form when staying on well at Hexham last time out.
He finished as a runner-up over 2m 0.5f on that occasion, just four days ago and with him seeming to have plenty left in the tank, the extra 2.5f today might just be the key to a first win since landing a course and distance success here in April, carrying 3lbs more than today.
Stat-wise, trainer Phil Middleton + handicap hurdlers + odds of 9/4 to 11/1 = 20/106 (18.9% SR) for 36pts (+33.9% ROI) since the start of 2011 and these runners include…
- at trips of 2m to 2m 6.5f : 18/87 (20.7%) for 44.9pts (+51.6%)
- on Good ground : 13/49 (26.5%) for 46pts (+93.9%)
- 2-10 days since last run : 7/28 (25%) for 15.2pts (+54.4%)
- at Class 5 : 6/27 (22.2%) for 21pts (+77.9%)
- ridden by a 3lb claimer : 3/15 (20%) for 6.45pts (+43%)
- and here at Stratford : 5/12 (41.7%) for 24.6pts (+205.3%)
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Astrum @ 7/2 BOG, which was widely available at 7.25pm on Friday, so the choice is yours! For what it’s worth, I’m on with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Stratford
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!
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