Stat of the Day, 12th September 2017
Monday’s Result :
2.35 Perth : Johnny Go @ 4/1 BOG RACE VOID, stakes returned : Fell and sadly fatally injured at first fence, causing race to be abandoned…
A sad day at Perth on Monday for all concerned and the thoughts of everyone here at Geegeez are with connections of Johnny Go.
Tuesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
War Glory @ 7/2 BOG
Why?
This 4yr old gelding has certainly been banging on the door of late, finishing 322 in his last three outings and was only beaten late on by half a length last time out when outpaced to the line at Chester 10 days ago.
That race was at a higher grade and over half a furlong than today, so it is hoped/expected that the drop in both grade and trip will do the trick today, as he certainly wouldn’t be winning out of turn!
Another bonus comes in the shape of the booking of the ever-reliable Ryan Moore to take the ride, as he continues to churn out those winners at a rate of 1 in 4, whilst here at Leicester, his strike rate is even better at 26.4% via 47 winners from 148 over the last nine seasons.
Trainer Richard Hannon is 22/154 (14.3% SR) overall here at this track and whilst that’s a reasonable strike rate, it’s not quite enough to show a profit from blindly backing all his runners, but if we focus on those priced at Evens to 8/1, we have 21 winners from 100 (21% SR) for profits of 9.86pts (+9.86% ROI).
Those 100 runners include…
- those carrying 9st 3lbs or more : 12/52 (23.1%) for 14.4pts (+27.7%)
- those last seen 6-20 days ago : 14/46 (30.4%) for 30.5pts (+66.4%)
- those racing over 7 furlongs are 8/36 (22.2%) for 8.8pts (+24.3%)
- and those dropping down a grade are 8/28 (28.6%) for 20.2pts (+72%)
And finally…2012-17 / Flat / 7f / 3-4 yr olds / top 3 finishes in each of last three races / 2nd or 3rd LTO in last 25 days = 61/289 (21.1% SR) for 159.4pts (+55.2% ROI), with those racing at Class 3 winning 9 of 28 (32.1%) for 56.8pts (+202.8%)…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on War Glory @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Paddy Power, SkyBet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.45pm on Monday, so, as ever, the choice is yours! For what it’s worth, I’m on with SkyBet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
…click here for the betting on the 4.25 Leicester
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!
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