Stat of the Day, 13th September 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

4.25 Leicester : War Glory @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 3/1 : Tracked leader 2f, close up, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong, beaten by four lengths…

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

4.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Lahore @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

I’ll be honest with you here, as soon as I see Doncaster on the racecards, I quickly check to see if Roger Varian has any runners out and if so, do I think they’ve got a fighting chance.

Lahore fits the bill on both counts, coming here with a 2 from 2 record and sufficiently rested after his last run to be fresh enough to win again.

So, why Roger Varian at Doncaster?

Well, he’s 39/160 (24.4% SR) for 99.9pts (+62.5% ROI) here backed blindly, from which, here are 10 factors at play today…

  • males are 34/114 (29.8%) for 77.7pts (+68.2%)
  • 1-75 days since last run : 32/109 (29.4%) for 114.9pts (+105.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 21/78 (26.9%) for 76.3pts (+97.8%)
  • in handicaps : 13/63 (20.6%) for 56.9pts (+90.3%)
  • over 7f : 11/40 (27.5%) for 55.3pts (+138.2%)
  • at the St Leger meeting : 9/35 (25.7%) for 59.7pts (+170.6%)
  • at Class 2 : 9/32 (28.1%) for 57.9pts (+180.9%)
  • LTO winners are 10/30 (33.3%) for 53.3pts (+177.5%)
  • those who won 2 starts ago are 7/23 (26.9%) for 13.2pts (+50.7%)
  • and those on a hat-trick are 2/5 (40%) for 5.1pts (+102%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Lahore @ 4/1 BOG, which was offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.55pm on Tuesday, so, as ever, the choice is yours! For what it’s worth, I’m on with Ladbrokes, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.20 Doncaster

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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