Stat of the Day, 14th September 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

4.20 Doncaster : Lahore @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 : Held up behind, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, winning by four lengths…

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

2.25 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Incidentally, Roger Varian’s only other runner on the Doncaster card was also a winner, also in a Class 2 handicap!

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A valuable Group 2 contest here for 2 yr old fillies, but perhaps somewhat surprisingly no big blockbuster list of facts and figures!

I’d several angles in with this one and in the end there was too much going on for it all to be purely coincidental, so let’s just take a quick look at some of the positive lines of enquiry I discovered…

  1. She’s 2 from 4 so far in the UK and won a group 3 race when last seen
  2. Trainer Mark Johnston (admittedly not always the easiest to call right stat-wise) is 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 6.07pts (+55.2% ROI) on this track this year with 5 of the 7 losers making the first three home, whilst those priced at 9/2 or shorter are 4/5 (80%) for 12.07pts (+241.4%)
  3. James Doyle rides today, refreshed from a rare day off on Wednesday, yet despite missing out on potential winners by resting is still 12/45 (26.7% SR) over the last fortnight
  4. She’s by Arch, whose 2 yr olds are 16/82 (19.5% SR) for 78.6pts (+95.8% ROI) over the last six seasons, including…
    …over 6f to 1m : 16/76 (21.1%) for 84.6pts (+111.3%)
    …in non-handicaps : 13/67 (19.4%) for 81.4pts (+121.4%)
    …females are 8/36 (22.2%) for 36.6pts (+101.6%)
    …and at Class 1 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 22.3pts (+247.9%)
  5. And a quick look at the pace tab of the Geegeez racecard suggests possible lone speed in this race and we’re also told that horses who lead do best over 1m here. So, with an average pace score of 3.75, a whole point clear of her nearest rival, she could well nick a soft early lead and control the race from the front.

…prompting me into… a 1pt win bet on Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by ten different firms at 5.40pm on Wednesday, so, as ever, the choice is yours! For what it’s worth, I’m on with Hills, because if she wins by 2 lengths or more I get a 15% bonus! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.25 Doncaster

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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