Thursday’s Result :
Friday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG
Trainer Charlie Appleby is in fine form of late, clocking up 7 winners from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last fortnight, with another 5 of the losers making the frame for a place strike rate of 66.6%.
Jockey James Doyle is also in decent nick, with a 10 from 42 (23.8% SR) record during the same time and when the two have combined recently, they are 5 from 12 (41.7% SR).
More long-term than just the past two weeks, Charlie’s runners here at Doncaster are 23/112 (20.5% SR) for 26.5pts (+23.7% ROI) profit and those numbers include…
- males at 20/79 (25.3%) for 48.4pts (+61.3%)
- over the last two seasons : 10/38 (26.3%) for 36.5pts (+96.1%)
- males over the last two seasons are 9/32 (28.1%) for 40.2pts (+125.7%)
- on soft ground : 3/16 (18.8%) for 10.8pts (+67.6%)
- ridden by James Doyle : 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.7pts (+130.3%)
- on soft ground over the last two seasons : 3/4 975%) for 22.8pts (+570%)
- under James Doyle over the last two seasons : 2/2 (100%) for 6.8pts (+340%)
I wouldn’t be too surprised if Aqabah shortens overnight and eventually goes off as favourite and that wouldn’t entirely be a bad thing, for although it’s a reckless policy to blindly back favourites, profit can be made from backing the right ones. This brings us back to jockey James Doyle, who is 51/110 (46.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+20.5% ROI) on favourites this year, including…
- on 2yr olds : 20/38 (52.6%) for 5.37pts (+14.1%)
- over the 7f trip : 18/31 (58.1%) for 12.4pts (+40%)
- for Charlie Appleby : 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.44pts (+19.3%)
- on soft ground : 6/8 (75%) for 5.4pts (+67.5%)
- and here at Doncaster : 2/3 (66.6%) for 1.34pts (+44.6%)
…which gives us… a 1pt win bet on Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.30pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG offered elsewhere! For what it’s worth, I’m on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!