Race of the Day – 15:00 Worcester
Mile House makes it onto The Shortlist at Worcester today with a good score of 13, having four sections of green and one of amber. He is clearly well suited to today’s race conditions and at 8/1 is worth taking a closer look.
A glance at the racecard shows that it appears quite a competitive event between five of the runners, with three looking like they have very little chance. The Hobbs and Johnson combination with Wait For Me looks the one they all have to beat.
Mile House won last time out over course and distance on very similar underfoot conditions to today, and that was his first appearance for almost two years, so he will hopefully have come on quite a bit for that run. He switches to fences today, however, and when last tried over the larger obstacles he failed to complete on two occasions. If he has improved his jumping he may well be in the mix here today with conditions in his favour.
Trainer Robert Stephens appears to like sending his runners at Worcester as his strike rate here is far higher than his overall rate. Over the past five years, he’s had 8 winners (21.05%) and 15 places (39.47%) for level stakes profits of 28.88 and 34.6a respectively.
The Instant Expert report highlights the good showing of Mile House, and the other runner in the race to come out reasonably well here is the favourite, with three sections of green.
Early leaders here over this distance have the best record with 20.42% of them going on to win the race for a small overall level stakes loss.
Mile House looks most likely to lead and if his jumping is slick enough early on he may be able to put some pressure on the jumping of the favourite, who is making his chase debut today.
For Mile House, the race revolves around whether or not his jumping stands up to the scrutiny. If it does, I think he is good value at 7 or 8/1 and am hopeful of a place at least.
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