Stat of the Day, 19th September 2017

Monday’s Result :

3.35 Worcester : Addrastos @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : Led until 3rd, prominent, ridden when not fluent 2 out, close 3rd flat, held towards finish and beaten by less than 3 lengths…

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

1.50 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Placebo Effect @ 9/2 non-BOG or 4/1 BOG

Why?

311313 Last 6 runs, 3rd of 9 in a much stronger Class 2 hcp LTO 6 days back, now down 3lbs and 3 classes and should enjoy conditions, as he’s…

  • 2 wins, 2 placed from 6 under today’s jockey Andrew Mullen
  • 3+2 from 5 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3+2/5 rated (OR) 51 to 70
  • 3 from 3 at 4/1 or shorter
  • 3/3 within a fortnight of last run
  • 2+1/3 at 7f
  • 2+1/3 on soft

Plus 2014-17 : trainer Ollie Peers runners returning 4-7 days after they last ran = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 31.1pts (+107.4% ROI), including…

  • males at 12/24 (50%) for 32.8pts (+136.6%)
  • hcps : 10/24 (41.7%) for 27pts (+112.6%)
  • at 9/4 to 15/2 : 12/23 (52.2%) for 35.3pts (+153.5%)
  • on the Flat : 11/23 (47.8%) for 30.3pts (+131.6%)
  • Monday to Friday racing : 12/22 (54.6%) for 34.4pts (+156.2%)
  • June to September : 11/20 (55%) for 33.3pts (+166.4%)
  • Class 5 : 6/14 (42.9%) for 18pts (+128.7%)
  • in 2017 : 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.24pts (+189.1%)
  • under Andrew Mullen : 4/6 (66.6%) for 14.2pts (+237.3%)
  • over 7/7.5 furlongs : 4/6 (66.6%) for 9.87pts (+164.5%)
  • 2 yr olds are 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.7pts (+90%)
  • and on soft ground : 1/1 (100%) for 2.85pts (+285%)

AND…since 2014 / Flat (turf) hcp @ 9/4 to 15/2 on Monday to Friday in June to Setpember = 7/9 (77.8% SR) for 31.45pts (+349.4% ROI), from which Class 5’s are 3 from 4, Andrew Mullen is 2/2 as are both 7/7.5f and 2017 runners.

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Placebo Effect @ 9/2 non-BOG or 4/1 BOG, as of 5.50pm on Monday. The non-BOG price is from Betfred & Totesport, who don’t go BOG until the morning of the race, whilst the BOG price is fairly widely available, so I’ll let you make your own choice! For what it’s worth, I’m on with Betfred at the higher price, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.50 Redcar

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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