Stat of the Day, 20th September 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

1.50 Redcar : Placebo Effect @ 9/2 non-BOG 3rd at 7/2 : Dwelt and slightly hampered start, held up and behind, headway under pressure over 1f out, slightly hampered and switched right inside final furlong, kept on but beaten by 1.5 lengths…

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

3.05 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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D’Bai @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A 3yr old gelding with 3 wins and 3 places from his six runs to date, including of relevance here…

  • 3/4 after a break of less than 60 days
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 over a mile
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/2 as favourite
  • a win and a place from two runs in Listed company
  • 1/1 on good to soft
  • 1/1 in blinkers

Three year olds have won four of the last six runnings of this race and D’Bai is best in at the weights based on handicap marks.

Trainer Charlie Appleby is 13/41 (31.7% SR) over the last 30 days, not counting a 1 from 2 return at Newcastle on Tuesday evening after I’d already made the selection.

Here at Sandown, his strike rate is 18.5% (12 winners from 65), with non-handicap races providing 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for profits of 7pts at an ROI of 17.9% and of these 39…

  • males are 8/31 (25.8%) for 15pts (+48.4%)
  • the last three seasons are 5/23 (21.7%) for 13pts (+56.4%)
  • and males over the last three seasons are 5/20 (25%) for 16pts (+80%)

Plus…since 2008, male Class 1 runners priced at 7/4 to 8/1 who have already won at this grade, but ran at Class 2 last time out in the past 60 days are 28/147 (19.1% SR) for 39.9pts (+27.2% ROI).

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on D’Bai @ 3/1 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport at 6.10pm on Tuesday. For what it’s worth, I’m on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.05 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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