Stat of the Day, 25th September 2017

Saturday’s Result :

8.40 Wolverhampton : Hussar Ballad @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 3/1 : Started slowly, pulled hard towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on well towards finish, not reach 1st 2, paying price for a slow start beaten by just over a length…

Monday’s pick goes in the…

4.45 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Royal Melody @ 5/1 BOG


Heather Main’s 3 yr old filly was a winner two starts ago before finishing as a runner-up last time out over this trip 32 days ago, and becomes of immediate interest, because…

2012-17 / Flat handicaps / 5f to 1m7f / 3-5 yr olds / females / 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO 21-60 days ago / won 2 starts ago = 142/761 (18.7% SR) for 285.3pts (+37.5% ROI), including…

  • over 5 to 9.5 furlongs : 95/450 (21.1%) for 242.9pts (+54%)
  • on soft ground : 15/86 (17.4%) for 58.6pts (+68.1%)
  • and over 5 to 9.5 furlongs on soft ground : 10/50 (20%) for 17.3pts (+34.6%)

Plus Heather Main + Flat handicaps + last two years = 8/52 (15.4% SR) for 58pts (+11.6% ROI), from which…

  • 3 yr olds are 5/25 (20%) for 15.65pts (+62.6%)
  • over 7.5 to 10 furlongs : 6/22 (27.3%) for 75.2pts (+341.9%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/17 (23.5%) for 16pts (+94.1%)
  • and on soft ground : 4/8 (50%) for 31.8pts (+398%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Royal Melody @ 5/1 BOG, which was widely available at 6.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.45 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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