Stat of the Day, 27th September 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

4.45 Lingfield : Unified @ 4/1 BOG 12th of 12 at 7/1 : Mid-division, edged right and ridden 3f out, soon behind…

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

8.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Banish @ 8/1 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding is 2/7 on Polytrack including a win over 1m3f here at Kempton previously.

Ridden today by James Doyle who has landed 5 winners from 14 in his last three days of action and with another 3 making the frame, he’s clearly in good touch, as he tends to be around this track too.

In handicap contests here since 2008, he has 68 winners from 473 (14.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 96.3pts (+20.4% ROI), from which…

  • males are 53/302 (17.6%) for 90.2pts (+29.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 29/140 (20.7%) for 48.09pts (+34.9%)
  • and those trained by Hugo Palmer are 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 3.4pts (+37.6%)

Speaking of Hugo Palmer, his runners are 16/100 (16% SR) for 25.96pts (+25.96% ROI) here at Kempton since the start of 2014, with the following subsets of data particularly relevant today…

  • those priced at 3/1 to 10/1 are 14/53 (26.4%) for 46.9pts (+88.5%)
  • males are 9/50 (18%) for 20.4pts (+40.8%)
  • handicappers are 7/38 (18.4%) for 10.3pts (+27.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/36 (16.6%) for 3.62pts (+10.1%)
  • those racing after less than 3 weeks rest are 6/30 (20%) for 14.23pts (+47.4%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 2/10 (20%) for 8.98pts (+89.8%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Banish @ 8/1 BOG, which was widely available at 5.30pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were offering  9/1 BOG and Sunbets were at 17/2, but they only go BOG on the morning of races and I’ll be settling up at 8/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.10 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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