Stat of the Day, 28th September 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

8.10 Kempton : Banish @ 8/1 BOG (6.4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 5/1 : Switched right after start, took keen hold towards rear, travelling strongly on inside 3f out, headway over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, driven to lead inside final furlong, stayed on op…

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

3.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Summer Chorus @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old filly has finished 322 in her last three outings and was only beaten by half a length last time out. That was 26 days ago, when behind Big Tour who has since won again off a mark 4lbs higher and up in class, so if the form holds out, we could be well in.

She’s got 1 win and 1 place from 2 starts here and possesses the same record under today’s jockey Oisin Murphy and her trainer Andrew Balding is in good form right now, saddling up 8 winners from 37 (21.6% SR) over the last fortnight.

More long-term, the Balding yard is 18/93 (19.4% SR) for 58.7pts (+63.1% ROI) with handicappers priced at 12/1 and shorter on the Rowley track here since 2009, from which…

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 13/45 (28.9%) for 49.9pts (+110.8%)
  • 4 yr olds are 7/28 (25%) for 38pts (+135.6%)
  • at Class 3  : 5/27 (18.5%) for 26.3pts (+97.2%)
  • females are 4/15 (26.7%) for 16.6pts (+110.9%)
  • and over 7 furlongs : 3/12 (25%) for 172pts (+143.7%)

And then there’s the matter of 3 to 5 yr olds running over 7/7.5 furlongs on the Flat after three consecutive top 3 placings. Such horses that were 2nd or 3rd last time out 6-30 days earlier are 96/442 (21.7% SR) for 177.8pts (+40.2% ROI) over the last six seasons, including…

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago : 80/355 (22.5%) for 181.4pts (+51.1%)
  • females are 40/145 (27.6%) for 164.5pts (+113.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 18/49 (36.7%) for 80.8pts (+164.9%)
  • and on the Rowley : 3/6 950%) for 49.3pts (+821.8%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Summer Chorus @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.10 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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