Stat of the Day, 29th September 2017

Thursday’s Result :

3.10 Newmarket : Summer Chorus @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 9/4 : Steadied start, took keen hold, held up in rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden over 2f out, soon beaten…

Friday’s pick goes in the…

3.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Group 3 winner two starts ago and then only narrowly beaten at Group 2 last time out. That was over a mile 15 days ago, when she was headed late on, so the drop back to 7f should work in her/our favour as she bids to build on her record of 1 win and 1 place from 2 runs on good to soft ground.

Her trainer, Mark Johnston is 40/335 (11.9% SR) for 139.7pts (+41.7% ROI) on the Rowley track over the last seven seasons, with the following of relevance today…

  • 6-15 days since last run : 26/121 (21.5%) for 263.4pts (+217.7%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 26/66 (39.4%) for 33.3pts (+50.4%)
  • at Class 1 : 10/59 (17%) for 15.3pts (+25.9%)
  • on good to soft ground : 6/46 (13%) for 145.9pts (+317.1%)
  • lost by 0.25 to 2 lengths LTO : 5/42 (11.9%) for 168.6pts (+401.4%)
  • runner-up LTO : 7/39 (18%) for 26.5pts (+67.8%)
  • and at group 1/2 : 5/23 (21.7%) for 31.74pts (+138%)

And she’s by Arch, whose 2 yr olds are 16/83 (19.3% SR) for 77.6pts (+93.5% ROI) since 2012, including…

  • over 7f : 9/41 (22%) for 29.1pts (+71%)
  • females : 8/37 (21.6%) for 35.6pts (+96.1%)
  • and Class 1 : 3/10 (30%) for 21.31pts (+213.1%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by both BetVictor & Coral at 5.55pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG generally available. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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