Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2017

Monday’s Result :

4.40 Bath : Air of York @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 : In touch, headway on outer over 1f out, ridden to lead towards finish…

Tuesday’s selection goes in the…

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Marienstar @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

A 6yr old mare who was third last out over 2m3f just seven days ago, now steps up in trip by 5 furlongs to become just the 20th runner sent to Southwell by trainer Neil King since the start of 2014, but I’m sure it’s not results keeping him away, as the previous ones are 4/19 (21% SR) for 11.88pts (+62.5% ROI) profit, including…

  • handicappers @ 3/13 (23.1%) for 15.49pts (+119.1%)
  • Class 4 @ 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.22pts (+63.2%)
  • hurdlers @ 3/12 (25%) for 13.88pts (+115.6%)
  • hcp hurdlers @ 2/7 (28.6%) for 16.49pts (+235.6%)
  • and 6 yr olds @ 2/7 (28.6%) for 9.22pts (+131.7%)

Now, the large step up in trip might worry some of you, but to put your mind at rest, our excellent daily trainer snippets report informs me (and you, of course!) that over the last two years, Neil King’s NH handicappers asked to step up in trip by 20% or more from their last run have won 4 and placed a further 3 times from 17 for win/place strike rates of 23.5% & 41.2% respectively, with a win only bet on each them producing 20.5pts at Industry SP at an ROI of 120.6%.

And finally, we have the issue of her being turned around quickly, but fear not, as…2015-17 / hcp hurdles / aged 5-9 / priced at 13-2 and shorter / ran at least twice in last three months / last ran 1-7 days ago = 200/638 (31.4% SR) for 107.9pts (+16.9% ROI) profit at level stakes. And of those 638…

  • those running on good ground are 93/283 (32.9%) for 76.8pts (+27.2%)
  • females are 51/139 (36.7%) for 79pts (+56.8%)
  • and females running on good ground are 30/61 (49.2%) for 78.1pts (+128%) : 6/10 for 14.72pts this year already!

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Marienstar @ 11/2 BOG, which was offered by Betfair Sports, SkyBet, Sunbets & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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