Stat of the Day, 4th October 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

3.45 Southwell : Marienstar @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 : Pressed leader, led 8th, jumped right next and 4 out, ridden before 2 out, headed approaching last, no impression on winner, stayed on one pace…

Wednesday’s selection goes in the…

7.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Brilliant Vanguard @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Kevin Ryan’s only runner of the day is a 4 yr old gelding who has won each of his last three outings, the latest coming in a 16-runner handicap over this course and distance 25 days ago at a higher grade than this race. So, although he’s gone up in the weights again, he’s running against poorer opposition in theory.

He’s already won 5 times so far, including…

  • 3/8 going right handed
  • 3/6 over this 1m trip
  • 3/5 under today’s jockey Kevin Stott
  • 3/5 in cheekpieces
  • 1/2 over course and distance.

Add to this the Ryan/Stott/Kempton AW hcp record of 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 12.06pts (+172.2% ROI) and the fact that since the start of 2010, Kevin Ryan’s record with just one runner that day stands at 89/522 (17.1% SR) for 547.1pts (+104.8% ROI) and you’ve grounds for confidence.

Even more when, of the 522 Ryan solo runners…

  • those racing over trips shorter than 9f are 77/446 (17.3%) for 555.2pts (+124.5%)
  • males are 72/399 (18.1%) for 533.8pts (+133.8%)
  • those last seen 4 to 25 days earlier are 54/281 (19.2%) for 580.9pts (+206.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 25/107 (23.4%) for 37.1pts (+34.6%)
  • those ridden by Kevin Stott are 8/38 (21.1%) for 9.8pts (+25.8%)
  • and here at Kempton : 8/31 (25.8%) for 18.5pts (+59.8%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Brilliant Vanguard @ 4/1 BOG, which was offered by at least eight firms at 5.40pm on Tuesday, whilst Coral were showing 9/2 BOG, but were having tech issues!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.40 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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