Stat of the Day, 6th October 2017

Thursday’s Result :

4.25 Warwick : Shanroe Santos @ 11/2 BOG 6th at 5/1 : Always behind, tailed off 6 out…

Friday’s selection goes in the…

5.20 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Final Fling @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who won last time out 46 days ago (so should be fresh) over course and distance under today’s jockey, has to be respected now dropping down in class, surely?

He’s trained by Rose Dobbin, whose LTO winners are 17/43 (39.5% SR) for 33.9pts (+78.7% ROI) when sent off at odds of 13/8 to 9/2 since the start of 2010 and these runners include…

  • hurdlers @ 7/19 (36.8%) for 15.1pts (+79.5%)
  • on soft ground : 2/6 933.3%) for 4.96pts (+82.6%)
  • at 2m 6.5f to 2m 7.5f : 3/4 9755) for 10.23pts (+255.8%)
  • and here at Hexham : 1/4 (25%) for 1.41pts (+35.2%)

Whilst more generally (and somewhat more substantially!), since 2008, handicap hurdlers with the CD icon next to their name who were LTO winners anywhere are 291/1639 (17.8% SR) for 196.2pts (+12% ROI) at odds of 7/4 and bigger, from which those now running at the same track and trip as that LTO win are 206/1112 (18.5% SR) for 159.9pts at an ROI of 14.4% : pretty good for blanket backing over 1000 runners!

And, of those 1112 LTO C&D winners…

  • males are 173/912 (19%) for 156.7pts (+17.2%)
  • 6 yr olds are 56/297 (18.9%) for 65pts (+22%)
  • 6 yr old males are 45/244 (18.4%) for 59.3pts (+24.4%)
  • those running here at Hexham are 6/22 (27.3%) for 12.3pts (+56%)
  • and 6 yr old males running here at Hexham are 1/2 (50%) for 2.8pts (+140%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Final Fling @ 4/1 BOG, which was offered by Betfair Sports, Betfred, Paddy Power, SkyBet & ToteSport at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.20 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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