Stat of the Day, 7th October 2017

Friday’s Result :

5.20 Hexham : Final Fling @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 : Mid-division, headway chasing leaders 6th, mistake 9th, outpaced approaching 2 out, kept on again run-in, went 2nd close home, no chance with winner…

Saturday’s selection goes in the…

5.35 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly with 4 wins and a place from her last six outings and was a runner-up last time out a fortnight ago over course and distance. She wasn’t beaten by far and with a little improvement could easily go one better. The booking of Frankie Dettori, therefore, is a positive move in that direction.

The mercurial Italian is in good touch recently, winning 3 of 6 races over the last week, as well as being 30 from 136 (22.1% SR) for 90.8pts (+66.8% ROI) on the Rowley track over the last seasons.

So, jockey box ticked, let’s look at the filly herself and the following achievements should stand her in good stead today…

  • 4 wins & a place from 9 runs this year
  • 4 + 1 from 6 in fields of 5 to 10 runners
  • 4 + 1 from 5 over 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 2 +1 from 4 on good ground
  • 2 wins from 4 within 8-15 days of her last run
  • 3 from 3 at odds of 3/1 and shorter
  • 2 + 1 from 3 over 1m 4f
  • 2 + 1 from 3 going right handed
  • 2 from 2 as favourite
  • and 1 from 2 at Class 2

And now, her trainer Roger Charlton…whose Flat handicappers over a mile and half are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 17.95pts (+112.2% ROI) this year, including…

  • 3 yr olds @ 5/13 (38.5%) for 10pts (+76.9%)
  • on Good ground : 3/7 (42.9%) for 13.88pts (+198.3%)
  • and at Class 2 : 3/4 (75%) for 18.88pts (+472.1%)

and since the start of 2010, his runners priced at 4/1 and shorter running 4 to 15 days after a top 3 finish are 46/99 (46.5% SR) for 26.1pts (+26.4% ROI) with the following of particular relevance here…

  • on the Flat : 34/72 (47.2%) for 20.9pts (+29%)
  • in handicaps : 32/69 (46.4%) for 19.75pts (+28.6%)
  • females are 19/40 (47.5%) for 17.67pts (+44.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 15/28 (53.6%) for 14.28pts (+51%)
  • and here on the Rowley : 1/2 (50%) for 2.07pts (+103.5%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.35 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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