Race of the Day – 18 Oct

Race of the Day – 17:35 Lingfield

The Trainer Jockey Combo Stats report highlights what an incredible record Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning have together at Lingfield. Over the past year, they’ve had 14 winners (35%) and 20 places (50%) from 40 runners, for level stakes profits of 16.99 and 13.44. This had also produced an Impact Value of 2.96, meaning they are almost three times more likely than average to have the winner.

They team up with Star Of Lombardy here today in an open looking one-mile four-furlong handicap.

Star Of Lombardy’s form had been quite poor until she was switched back to the all-weather at Wolverhampton last time out, where she ran on nicely over today’s distance to take a similar looking race. She has only been raised two pounds for that win, therefore, on the back of that performance, she has to enter calculations.

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If we take a look at the trainer and jockey form from within the race card (by clicking the trainer and jockey icons below the horse’s name) we can see their respective excellent form here at Lingfield.

It is also worth noting that Johnston has a decent record with his staying runners, as these have nearly a 1.5% higher strike rate than his average.

Star Of Lombardy’s sire, Cape Cross, shows a significant improvement with runners on the all-weather courses. He has produced 101 winners (19.06%) for a level stakes profit of 35.81 and an Impact Value of 1.79.

There are very few sections of green on the Instant Expert report, which may allude to the fact that this race might not take a lot of winning.

Star Of Lombardy has one section of green for the Class, having won this standard of race four times before. As noted earlier, she is just the four pounds higher than for her last victory so is weighted reasonably well.

The Pace report shows that there is very little bias between the running styles here over this distance, with just over 1% separating the first three blobs.

Star Of Lombardy is usually quite prominent and if she gets away well then Fanning should have a reasonable chance of dictating the pace that he wants. If he is able to do that then I think the 6/1 may prove a bit of value.

Click here for the 17:35 at Lingfield.

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