Stat of the Day, 20th October 2017

Thursday’s Result :

4.30 Uttoxeter : Classic Jewel @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 : Mid-division, close up 5th, chased leader 3 out, soon ridden, lost place between last 2, no impression with front pair before last, just held on for 3rd…

Friday’s selection goes in the…

4.55 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Restive @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 6, 3yo+ Lady amateur riders’ handicap over 1m2f on Good ground…

…and a 4 year old gelding trained by Iain Jardine, whose form at the end of the Flat season is generally something to keep an eye on as 2015-17 / Flat handicaps / August – October = 36/220 (16.4% SR) for 109.6pts at an ROI of 49.8%, including…

  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 34/174 (19.5%) for 138.7pts (+79.7%)
  • on Good ground : 13/64 (20.3%) for 88.3pts (+138%)
  • 4 yr olds are 13/57 (22.8%) for 76.6pts (+134.4%)
  • LTO runners-up are 6/31 (19.4%) for 54.4pts (+175.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/16 (18.75%) for 4.55pts (+28.4%)

Now in this type of race, jockey booking plays a big part in how the races unfold, but thankfully in Serena Brotherton, we have the UK’s best Lady Amateur rider, one who is actually profitable to follow blindly!

Since the start of 2008, her record stands at 85/465 (18.3% SR) for 138pts (+29.7% ROI), whilst in handicaps, she is 83/454 (18.3%) for 143pts (+31.5%) and with today’s contest in mind, those 454 handicap races include…

  • Amateur Riders Only : 75/397 (18.9%) for 104.3pts (+26.3%)
  • on Flat (turf) : 64/354 (18.1%) for 125.6pts (+35.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 39/241 (16.2%) for 47.9pts (+19.9%)
  • Ladies Only races : 44/226 (19.5%) for 124.5pts (+55.1%)
  • Lady Amateur races : 36/175 (20.6%) for 79.8pts (+45.6%)
  • on Good ground : 19/114 (16.7%) for 40.6pts (+35.6%)
  • and over today’s 1m2f trip : 16/99 (16.2%) for 47.6pts (+48.1%)

Serena also rides Hannington in the 2nd division of this race (card here) and is worth a second look…

…but our bet is… a 1pt win bet on Restive @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from SkyBet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.30pm on Thursday. Those able to take 11/2 from Bet365 should do so and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.55 Redcar

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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