Monday’s Result :
3.30 Plumpton : Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 4/1 : Led to 2nd, tracked leaders, but weakened before 3 out…
Tuesday’s selection goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Eddy @ 11/2 BOG
A Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle contest over 2m5.5f on soft ground…
…featuring an 8 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner by 13 lengths at a higher grade when last seen 12 days ago and has now won three of his last six in a form line reading 116651, plus he’s 2 from 3 under today’s jockey..
His name also actually crops up in quite a few of my saved micro-systems and I’m just going to give you a brief overview of a half dozen reasons to back this fellow today. Each of the following can be stripped right down in usual SotD style re: sex/age/class/course/distance/time of year/trainer/going/odds etc etc to good effect, but for me to do so would leave us with one of the longest pieces ever and I wouldn’t want to bore you!
So, in order of decreasing sample size, let’s back this horse, because…
- Since 2008, handicap hurdlers with CD next to their name on the racecard and who also won last time out are 351 from 1797 (19.5% SR) for 167.2pts (+9.33% ROI) profit, with those winning over the same course and distance LTO scoring of 249 of 1255 (20.3%) occasions for 140.7pts at an ROI of 11.5%.
- Since 2012, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle by more than 4 lengths last time out inside the previous 60 days are 399 from 1534 (26% SR) for profits of 269.8pts (+17.6% ROI), with LTO C&D winners scoring again 50 times from 151 (33.1%) for 92.6pts (+61.4%)
- Since 2008, handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners 11-30 days earlier coming off the back of a run of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts then “doubled up” 196 times from 1125 efforts (17.4% SR) for 171.8pts (+15.3% ROI) profits, when sent off at odds of 6/4 to 14/1.
- Since 2011, trainer Sue Gardner’s runners sent back out just 4 to 15 days after a top 4 finish last time around are 15/63 (23.8% SR) for 23.2pts at an ROI of 36.8% with handicap hurdlers winning 10 of 42 (23.8%) for 22.2pts (+52.9%)
- Since 2010, Sue’s Exeter runners competing over trips of 2m3f to 2m5.5f are 10 from 50 (20% SR) for 32.4pts (+64.8% ROI) with handicap hurdlers winning 8 of 27 (29.6%) for28.2pts (+104.6%).
- And since 2014, Sue’s handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners inside the previous 30 days are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 26.2pts at an ROI of 163.9% with those coming here to Exeter winning 3 of 4 (75%) for 16.4pts (+409.6%).
As you can probably imagine, I can expand each of the above in great detail, but we’d be here all day trying to digest it…
…so for now, it’s… a 1pt win bet on Eddy @ 11/2 BOG, which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Monday with plenty of 5/1 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!