Stat of the Day, 24th October 2017

Monday’s Result :

3.30 Plumpton : Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 4/1 : Led to 2nd, tracked leaders, but weakened before 3 out…

Tuesday’s selection goes in the…

4.20 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Eddy @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle contest over 2m5.5f on soft ground…

…featuring an 8 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner by 13 lengths at a higher grade when last seen 12 days ago and has now won three of his last six in a form line reading 116651, plus he’s 2 from 3 under today’s jockey..

His name also actually crops up in quite a few of my saved micro-systems and I’m just going to give you a brief overview of a half dozen reasons to back this fellow today. Each of the following can be stripped right down in usual SotD style re: sex/age/class/course/distance/time of year/trainer/going/odds etc etc to good effect, but for me to do so would leave us with one of the longest pieces ever and I wouldn’t want to bore you!

So, in order of decreasing sample size, let’s back this horse, because…

  1. Since 2008, handicap hurdlers with CD next to their name on the racecard and who also won last time out are 351 from 1797 (19.5% SR) for 167.2pts (+9.33% ROI) profit, with those winning over the same course and distance LTO scoring of 249 of 1255 (20.3%) occasions for 140.7pts at an ROI of 11.5%.
  2. Since 2012, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle by more than 4 lengths last time out inside the previous 60 days are 399 from 1534 (26% SR) for profits of 269.8pts (+17.6% ROI), with LTO C&D winners scoring again 50 times from 151 (33.1%) for 92.6pts (+61.4%)
  3. Since 2008, handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners 11-30 days earlier coming off the back of a run of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts then “doubled up” 196 times from 1125 efforts (17.4% SR) for 171.8pts (+15.3% ROI) profits, when sent off at odds of 6/4 to 14/1.
  4. Since 2011, trainer Sue Gardner’s runners sent back out just 4 to 15 days after a top 4 finish last time around are 15/63 (23.8% SR) for 23.2pts at an ROI of 36.8% with handicap hurdlers winning 10 of 42 (23.8%) for 22.2pts (+52.9%)
  5. Since 2010, Sue’s Exeter runners competing over trips of 2m3f to 2m5.5f are 10 from 50 (20% SR) for 32.4pts (+64.8% ROI) with handicap hurdlers winning 8 of 27 (29.6%) for28.2pts (+104.6%).
  6. And since 2014, Sue’s handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners inside the previous 30 days are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 26.2pts at an ROI of 163.9% with those coming here to Exeter winning 3 of 4 (75%) for 16.4pts (+409.6%).

As you can probably imagine, I can expand each of the above in great detail, but we’d be here all day trying to digest it…

…so for now, it’s… a 1pt win bet on Eddy @ 11/2 BOG, which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power  at 5.35pm on Monday with plenty of 5/1 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.20 Exeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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