Stat of the Day, 26th October 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

2.45 Worcester :  Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 : Chased leaders, every chance after 3 out, not fluent last, no extra closing stages, beaten by 2.5 lengths…

Thursday’s selection goes in the…

4.15 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle contest over 2m4.5f on good ground…

…featuring a 4 yr old mare looking to build upon a solid runner-up run 27 days ago when she was returning from over 28 weeks off the track.

She’s trained by Charlie Longsdon, whose sub-12/1 runners are 24/83 (28.9% SR) for 28.1pts (+33.9% ROI) here at Southwell since 2012, including…

• 5 to 8 yr olds at 22/69 (31.9%) for 32.5pts (+47.2%)
• Class 4 runners at 16/51 (31.4%) for 19pts (+37.3%)
• and handicappers at 9/38 (23.7%) for 14pts (+36.8%)

AND…Class 4 handicappers aged 5 to 8 yrs old are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 19.2pts (+74% ROI).

In addition to the above and if I’m honest, what first caught my eye is that she’s a daughter of one of my favourite sires, the now sadly-departed Midnight Legend. Longer-term readers of this column will know of my liking for this one, but I assure you the basis isn’t sentimental : it’s just profitable!

Blindly backing all Midnight Legend progeny since the start of 2008 gives just over 4400 bets and although they win at a strike rate close to 14.5% and generate an ROI of over 13%, that’s just too many bets from one source for most people.

So, as you can imagine, there are an abundance of profitable angles you can derive from such a massive sample size, but one of my favourites is this very simple angle… just back his Class 3/4 female handicap hurdlers!

From an initial set of 4411 runners above, this angle gives us 68 winners from 372 (18.3% SR) for profits of 269pts at an impressive ROI of 72.3% and can be further broken down (with this race in mind) as follows…

• at trips of 2m3f to 2m6.5f : 43/205 (21%) for 179.9pts (+87.7%)
• on Good ground : 24/131 (18.3%) for 110.8pts (+84.6%)
• 6 yr olds are 27/117 (23.1%) for 66.1pts (+56.5%)
• those last seen 26-45 days earlier are 20/92 (21.7%) for 107.9pts (+117.3%)
• whilst here at Southwell : 4/14 (28.6%) for 5.36pts (+38.3%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Betbright, SkyBet, SportPesa & 10 Bet at 5.45pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!