Stat of the Day, 27th October 2017

Thursday’s Result :

4.15 Southwell : Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG PU at 9/2 : Chased leaders, pushed along after 3 out, weakened before next, soon eased, pulled up before the last…

Friday’s selection goes in the…

4.00 Newbury:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Executive Force @ 13/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo handicap contest over 1m on soft ground…

…and a rare occurrence for SotD in so much as I rarely suggest we get behind a horse with a record of just 1 win in 10, but in fairness to him and the race ahead of him, he’s 1 from 3 here at Newbury, 1 from 2 on soft ground and 1/2 at this grade with the rest of his career being run at Class 1 & 2.

He’s trained by William Haggas and at the time I made my pick, the yard was 5 from 13 in the preceding 7 days, whilst since 2012 their record here at Newbury stood at 37/185 (20% SR) for 38.3pts (+20.7% ROI), including…

• those racing at trips beyond 6f : 28/141 (19.9%) for 53.5pts (+37.9%)
• those priced at 11/10 to 8/1 are 32/131 (24.4%) for 42.8pts (+32.7%)
• males are 21/99 (21.2%) for 44.2pts (+44.6%)
• at Class 4 : 18/87 (20.7%) for 33.3pts (+38.2%)
• 3 yr olds are 19/85 (22.4%) for 39pts (+45.9%)
• those returning from a break of 16-60 days : 23/84 (27.4%) for 53.2pts (+63.4%)
• handicappers are 16/64 (25%) for 30.7pts (+48%)
• in 3yo only races : 12/55 (21.8%) for 30pts (+54.5%)
• on Soft ground : 10/42 (23.8%) for 31.4pts (+74.7%)
• and in October : 6/36 (16.7%) for 16.1pts (+44.6%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Executive Force @ 13/2 BOG, which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Coral at 5.45pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!