Stat of the Day, 6th November 2017

Saturday’s Result :

4.00 Newmarket: Yellowhammer @ 3/1 BOG (2.4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 2/1 Keen to post, held up in touch in centre, good headway chasing leaders 2f out, ridden over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led towards finish

Monday’s selection goes in the…

4.10 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Mab Dab @ 13/2 BOG

A Class 5 conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle over 2m4.5f on good to soft ground…

…in which I’m hoping the odds on jolly finds a 1st start under Rules in almost 6 years a little too competitive. I can see why she’s so short, based on P2P form and where’s she’s based, but there’s more value (on paper at least) in our 6 yr old gelding who heads the weights and was a winner here three starts ago.

He’s won one and placed once in two handicap hurdles races, is 1/1 at the track and also at Class 5, so he should know what lies ahead, as should his trainer, Linda Jewell.

Linda’s quite possibly only a household name in her own house, but has been very successful in the past few years (especially here at Plumpton) with horses with a little juice in the price. More specifically…Linda Jewell + NH handicappers at 7/2 to 14/1 + November to April + 2010 to now = 15/91 (16.5% SR) for 71.8pts (+78.9% ROI), from which…

  • on Good to Soft or worse : 11/72 (15.3%) for 53.8pts (+74.8%)
  • males are 10/63 (15.9%) for 54.5pts (+86.5%)
  • at class 5 : 9/53 (17%) for 40.3pts (+76%)
  • here at Plumpton : 11/49 (22.5%) for 80.1pts (+163.5%)
  • hurdlers are 6/35 (17.1%) for 40.2pts (+114.9%)
  • in 2017 : 3/13 (23.1%) for 35.6pts (+273.6%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 30.9pts (+343.4%)

Jack Sherwood gets the ride today around a track where he too has acquitted himself pretty well in the past winning 5 of 29 (17.2% SR) rides since 2013 rewarding followers with profits of 11.62pts at a return of just over 40p in the pound, including…

  • in handicap hurdles : 3/19 (15.8%) for 4.61pts (+24.2%)
  • at odds of 7/2 to 10/1 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 26.62pts (+190.1%)
  • and in handicap hurdles at odds of 7/2 to 10/1 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 12.61pts (+114.6%)

I also mentioned that in carrying 12 stone before and after any claims were counted, Mab Dab was top weight today and I accept that this is a negative for some punters, so some of you may be surprised to learn that…2009 to now / UK handicap hurdlers / aged 5 to 9 / carrying 12-0 to 12-5 / priced at 10-1 and shorter = 82/225 (36.4% ROI) for 95.4pts (+42.4% ROI) profit and those 225 runners include…

  • top weight before claims included : 79/208 (38%) for 92.4pts (+44.4%)
  • males at 71/199 (35.7%) for 89.6pts (+45%)
  • top weight after claims : 78/197 (39.6%) for 106.1pts (+53.8%)
  • carrying 12-0 or 12-1 : 47/135 (34.8%) for 72.2pts (+53.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 33/99 (33.3%) for 18.5pts (+18.7%)
  • and here at Plumpton : 4/6 (66.6%) for 9.13pts (+152.2%)

…all of which backs up… a 1pt win bet on Mab Dab @ 13/2 BOG, which was widely available at 5.40 pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

click here for the betting on the 4.10 Plumpton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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