Stat of the Day, 8th November 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

4.50 Wolverhampton : Jack of Diamonds @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Held up, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, effort when short of room inside final furlong to go 2nd.

My next attempt to stop crossbar-rattling and drag myself off the cold list goes in Wednesday’s…

2.00 Chepstow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap over 2m on Good To Soft worth £7798…

…and a 6 yr old gelding with solid Irish P2P form from 4 runs at the end of 2016, winning the last of them ahead of a Rules debut at Ffos Las in March of this year. He was a winner that day too by some 30 lengths, although he did have some luck along the way.

He was just over a length down after the last hurdle but was staying on well, when the leader jinked and unseated hos rider, leaving our boy with a facile opportunity to score at the first attempt.

He can be expected to have come on for having had the experience and you just know that as an ex-pointer he should just jump well and no doubt his handler, Evan Williams will have had him extensively schooled during his 252 day break ahead of this handicap debut.

Evan does well with his jumping debutants and those priced at 6/ to 11/1 are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 25.6pts (+35.6% ROI) since 2011, including…

  • males at 14/69 (20.3%) for 28.6pts (+41.5%)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 10/40 (25%) for 18.3pts (+45.7%)
  • those ridden by Adam Wedge are 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.6%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 5/15 (33.3%) for 22.3pts (+148.7%)
  • those returning from a break of 6 to 10 months are 4/14 (28.6%) for 29.6pts (+211.3%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 2/6 (33.3%) for 9.3pts (+155.3%)

It’s no surprise to see the yard has had a couple of winners on handicap debut at this track, as more generally/recently, the Williams runners have a good time of it here at Chepstow, winning 19 of 102 (18.6% SR) for 117.2pts (+114.9% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which…

  • males are 17/88 (19.3%) for 102.7pts (+116.8%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m3.5f : 15/72 (20.8%) for 117.4pts (+163%)
  • at odds of Evens to 17/2 : 14/56 (25%) for 20.8pts (+37.1%)
  • ridden by Adam Wedge : 6/31 (19.4%) for 6.9pts (+22.3%)
  • over the 2m trip : 9/30 (30%) for 24.6pts (+82%)
  • those rated (OR) 119-130 are 7/27 (25.9%) for 25.7pts (+95.3%)
  • in October/November : 8/20 (40%) for 145.3pts (+726.5%)
  • 6 yr olds are 4/19 (21.1%) for 7.95pts (+41.9%)
  • LTO winners are 6/13 (46.2%) for 121.9pts (+937.9%)
  • and those coming back from 6-10 months off the track are 3/11 (27.3%) for 9.98pts (+90.7%)

…providing us with… a 1pt win bet on Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG, which was available from BetVictor, BoyleSports, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

click here for the betting on the 2.00 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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