Stat of the Day, 9th November 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

2.00 Chepstow : Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Prominent, went 2nd before 4 out, led before 3 out, ridden and headed before last, regained lead towards finish, kept on and headed close home, beaten by a neck.

Next up is Thursday’s…

7.15 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Petite Jack @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 2, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m 2f on Polytrack worth £11,972…

…and a 4 yr old gelding, who just seems to love running on the A/W, winning six times and placing once from just nine efforts, culminating in a course and distance success LTO 40 days ago when visiting Chelmsford for the first time.

Based on today’s conditions, here’s how his 9 A/W starts break down…

  • 6 wins from 8 going left handed (5/6 in hcps)
  • 6/8 on Polytrack (5/6 in hcps)
  • 5/7 in handicaps
  • 4/6 ridden by jack Mitchell (3/4 in hcps)
  • 4/5 priced at 5/1 or shorter (all in hcps)
  • 4/5 after 31-60 days rest (all in hcps)
  • 3/5 this year (3/4 in hcps)
  • 3/3 over this 10f trip (2/2 in hcps)
  • 3/3 in September to November (all in hcps)
  • 1/1 here at Chelmsford (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 over course and distance (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 in a Class 2 race worth less than £20k (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 for trainer Archie Watson (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 in a sub-8 runner field (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 in cheekpieces (in a hcp)

That C&D win LTO was actually his first run on the A/W since an early summer move to the Archie Watson’s yard and his stablemates are also currently in great form with 4 wins and 4 places from 11 runs over the last two weeks, whilst in the last 30 days, Archie’s A/W figures are excellent with 5 winners and 3 placers from 12 efforts.

Archie only had his first A/W runner a little over 13 months ago (01/10/16), but he’s found the winners’ enclosure pretty easy to get to in this sphere since! In fact his A/W record to date stands at 30/123 (24.4% SR) for 38.5pts (+31.3% ROI), from which the following are relevant today…

  • those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 30/101 (29.7%) for 60.5pts (+59.9%)
  • those rested for 6-45 days are 27/94 (28.7%$) for 45.8pts (+48.8%)
  • on Polytrack : 19/86 (22.1%) for 25.6pts (+29.7%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 6/31 (19.4%) for 16pts (+51.7%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.6pts (+104.6%)
  • and those ridden by Jack Mitchell are 2/6 (33.3%) for 17pts (+283.9%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Petite Jack @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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