Stat of the Day, 13th November 2017

Saturday’s Result :

2.15 Aintree: Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 11/4 Held up towards rear, closed on inside from 5th, no impression 2 out, weakened before last.

Next up is Monday’s…

4.00 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £3,899 to the winner.

Trainer Harry Whittingham has 3 winners from his last 8 runners, from which his hurdlers are 2 from 4, but that’s not too surprising considering that since 1st October 2014, his hurdlers are 19/75 (25.3% SR) for 149.2pts (+199% ROI) in the final three months of the year. Of those 75 early season hurdlers…

  • males are 16/67 (23.9%) for 70.7pts (+105.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 15/54 (27.8%) for 146.1pts (+270.5%)
  • ran in last 30 days : 6/32 (18.75%) for 30.25pts (+94.5%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 13/31 (41.9%) for 17.35pts (+56%)
  • at 1m7.5f/2m : 11/30 (36.7%) for 135pts (+450%)
  • in handicaps : 5/25 (20%) for 15.36pts (+61.4%)
  • and here at Kempton : 2/7 (28.6%) for 12.17pts (+173.8%)

…and his only hurdler today is Salto Chisco, a 9yr old gelding who has three wins from his last six outings and has also achieved the following…

  • 3 wins & 2 places from 7 within 30 days of his last run
  • 2 wins & 2 places from 6 going right handed
  • 2 wins & 2 places from 5 at 2 miles
  • 1 from 1 here at Kempton (over course and distance)

That course and distance win also makes him of further interest, as since 2009 in Class 3 to 5 handicap hurdles, former C&D winners who were priced at 7/4 to 12/1 after a win LTO = 195/952 (20.5% SR) for 169.2pts (+17.8% ROI), including…

  • those who last ran 6 to 60 days earlier : 173/843 (20.5%) for 150.1pts (+17.8%)
  • 9 yr olds are 21/91 (23.1%) for 29.5pts (+32.4%)
  • and here at Kempton: 2/10 (20%) for 6.91pts (+69.1%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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