Stat of the Day, 17th November 2017

Thursday’s Result :

7.25 Chelmsford : Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 9/4 Keen tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, no extra inside final furlong.

Next up is Friday’s…

8.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+, A/W Handicap over a mile and a quarter on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner.

And a 6yr old gelding whose career record of 5/43 is OK, but just OK. However, all 5 wins have come from 28 runs on Polytrack, from which he’s 5/25 (20% SR) for 14.73pts (+58.9% ROI) under today’s jockey Jack Mitchell and those runs include…

  • at odds of 5/2 to 13/2 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.49pts (+63.3%)
  • off a mark of 61 to 70: 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.46pts (+243.3%)
  • after a break of just 12-18 days : 3/5 (60%) for 22.46pts (+449.2%)
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 10.22pts (+511%) when all three of the above happened.

He is trained by Brendan Powell, whose A/W handicappers are 29/247 (11.7% SR) for 159.7pts (+64.7% ROI) since the start of 2013, including…

  • 3 to 7 yr olds are 27/216 (142.5%) for 173.7pts (+80.4%)
  • at Class 5 to 7 : 28/211 (13.3%) for 192.8pts (+91.4%)
  • and 3 to 7 yr olds at Class 5 to 7 are 26/185 (14.1%) for 201.8pts (+109.1%)

And of those above 185 runners…

  • on Polytrack : 21/143 (14.7%) for 173.4pts (+121.2%)
  • 1-25 days since last run : 20/106 (18.9%) for 178.2pts (+168.1%)
  • and on Polytrack, 1-25 days since last run : 16/81 (19.8% SR) for 144.2pts (+178%)

And finally (!) from these 81, 3-7 yo, C 5-7, 1-25 dslr Poly runners…

  • 11-25 dslr = 13/61 (21.3%) for 130.6pts (+214.1%)
  • males are 12/52 (23.1%) for 77.1pts (+148.2%)
  • Class 5= 6/33 (18.2%) for 35.07pts (+106.3%)
  • at odds of EVS to 8/1 : 10/31 (32.3%) for 30.4pts (+97.9%)
  • top 5 finish LTO = 7/29 (24.1%) for 12pts (+41.3%)
  • previous course winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.76pts (+61.9%)
  • and in November : 5/13 (38.5%) for 99.7pts (+766.9%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG which was available from SkyBet at 5.55pm on Thursday. Only 4 firms had priced this up when I went to press. Betfair & Paddy Power offer 3/1 BOG, whilst Bet365 offer 7/2 BOG, so I’ve taken the middle option. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.15 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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