Stat of the Day, 18th November 2017

Friday’s Result :

8.15 Chelmsford : Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1 Led early, tracked leaders, effort on inside when not much room over 1f out, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, not quicken close home.

Next up is Saturday’s…

1.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+, handicap hurdle over 3m 0.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,574 to the winner.

And a 5 yr old gelding who comes here on a hat-trick after a couple of wins at Southwell back in March and then again just 23 days ago.

His trainer Caroline Bailey doesn’t send many here to Wetherby for some reason, but I’m sure it’s not because of results, because since 2010 her runners are 8/38 (21.1% SR) for 43.7pts (+115% ROI), including…

  • males @ 7/36 (19.4%) for 37.5pts (+104.1%)
  • in hcps : 6/32 (18.75%) for 5.96pts (+18.6%)
  • over trips of 2m4.5f and beyond = 8/28 (28.6%) for 53.7pts (+191.8%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 = 7/24 (29.2%) for 17.8pts (+74%)
  • and at Class 4 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 50.25pts (+279.2%)

Jockey Harry Skelton bypasses Cheltenham to ride here today and hopefully he’ll bring his great recent form with him that has seen him notch up 12 winners from 39 in the last two weeks. Closer inspection upon his record gives some explanation about why he might be here instead of HQ, as he’s 21/52 (40.4% SR) for 24.5pts (+47.2% ROI) on this track since 2014, from which…

  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter = 21/43 (48.8%) for 33.5pts (+78%)
  • over hurdles = 10/27 (37%) for 8.7pts (+32.2%)
  • in handicaps = 10/23 (43.5%) for 21.3pts (+92.6%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/19 (42.1%) for 9.44pts (+49.7%)
  • and in November : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.16pts (+51.1%)

And one last thing about the horse, he’s by Daylami whose 5yr old handicap hurdlers are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 33.3pts (+104% ROI) over the last two years, with those priced shorter than 5/1 winning 7 of 17 (41.2%) for 7.6pts at an ROI of 44.8%.

…giving us … a 1pt win bet on Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Paddy Power at 7.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.40 Wetherby

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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