Thursday’s Result :
1.25 Wincanton : Cucklington @ 11/4 BOG WON at 13/8 Led from 2nd, headed 16th, led again before 4 out, clear before 2 out, held on towards finish to win by a length and a half.
Next up is Friday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG
A Class 5, 2yo A/W Handicap (Nursery) over a mile on Tapeta worth £3,558 to the winner.
A fairly simple, no-frills, back to basics approach today with a 2yr old (obviously!) colt, who seems to like the tapeta well enough, having made the frame on both previous runs on the surface. He wears a visor for the first time today and is effectively a pound well in ahead of his future mark.
I think he has an excellent chance here today, but the reason he caught my eye from a numerical perspective is because…
…trainer Keith Dalgleish + males priced at Evens to 9/1 + A/W handicaps + October to February inclusive = 46/235 (19.% SR) for 38.25pts (+16.3% ROI) since 2011, and of particular relevance today amongst those 235 winter ‘cappers…
- over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs : 28/146 (19.2%) for 71.15pts (+48.7%)
- at Class 5 : 19/90 (21.1%) for 18.5pts (+20.5%)
- those beaten by just 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 15/58 (25.9%) for 19.96pts (+34.4%)
- wearing the applied headgear for the first time : 7/28 (25%) for 13.3pts (+47.6%)
- in a visor : 5/23 (21.7%) for 7.6pts (+33%)
- and in a visor less than 3 times : 5/12 (41.7%) for 18.6pts (+155%)
He’s drawn 5 of 6 and is likely to travel down the field waiting for a late run, based on past performances and the Geegeez racecard pace and draw information suggests a high draw coming from off the pace is the best place to be.
…and that’s the basis for… a 1pt win bet on Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Thursday. I’ve actually managed to grab some 100/30 BOG from SkyBet, so I’d recommend you try that too, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!