Stat of the Day, 25th November 2017

Friday’s Result :

6.15 Newcastle : Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 15/8 Led, headed 5f out, prominent, pushed along 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and kept on same pace .

Next up is Saturday’s…

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Berryessa @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ A/W Handicap (Fillies) over 5f on Tapeta worth £3234 to the winner.

And a 3 yr old filly who was a course and distance winner last time out under today’s jockey Luke Morris a week ago taking her record on the A/W to two wins and a place from four starts (2161).

All four runs have been over this 5f trip and that C&D win last week was her first run here and also her first under Luke Morris.

Her trainer Rae Guest is enjoying some decent results of late, with 3 winners from 7 in the past fortnight and 2 from 5 over the last seven days, whilst in A/W handicaps at odds of 6/4 to 6/1, his runners are 21/76 (27.6% SR) for 25.2pts (+33.1% ROI) since 2011, with the following of particular relevance today…

  • females are 16/62 (25.8%) for 17.58pts (+28.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 15/49 (30.6%) for 23.3pts (+47.5%)
  • after less than 3 weeks rest = 10/30 (33/3%) for 19.55pts (+65.2%)
  • LTO winners are 9/27 (33.3%) for 11.56pts (+42.8%)
  • at Class 5 = 11/26 (42.3%) for 22.93pts (+88.2%)
  • here at Wolverhampton = 5/20 (25%) for 1.86pts (+9.3%)
  • on Tapeta = 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.76pts (+36%)
  • over 5 furlongs = 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.19pts (+68.3%)
  • in November = 4/11 (36.4%) for 10.95pts (+99.5%)
  • and those ridden by Luke Morris are 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.2pts (+90%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Berryessa @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Friday. Those able to take the 4/1 BOG offered by Bet365 should do so and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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