Stat of the Day, 27th November 2017

Saturday’s Result :

6.45 Wolverhampton : Berryessa @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 6/4 Chased leaders, took keen hold, driven over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, beaten by just a length.

Next up is Monday’s…

2.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Play The Ace @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ A/W Handicap Chase over 2m3f on Good to Soft ground worth £8133 to the winner.

An 8 yr old gelding whose record in handicap chases is an impressive 5 from 13 (30.5% SR) for 11.2pts (+86.2% ROI) and from those 13 runs, he is…

• 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.2pts (+101.7%) at trips of 2m4f to 2m7f
• 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.2pts (+120%) wearing a tongue tie
• 4/10 (40%) for 7.31pts (+73.1%) in cheekpieces
• 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.66pts (+118.4%) in 2017
• 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.95pts (+86.9%) under jockey Sean Bowen
• 5/7 (71.4%) for 17.2pts (+245.7%) within 25 days of last run
• 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.29pts (+175.6%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
• and 2/2 (100%) for 7.25pts (+362.5%) running in November.

That 2/2 November stat has been achieved in the last 25 days via wins at Stratford by 1.25 lengths and then by 10 lengths at Wincanton next/last time out 9 days later/16 days ago. This latest victory flags Play The Ace up on one of my stored micro-systems, which I’ll share with you now…

…the rules look more complicated in print that in practice, but I want…Male Class 3 chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who won a handicap chase last time out (11 to 25 days ago) by 2 to 10 lengths. Since 2010, there has been 339 such runners with 86 winners (25.4% SR) and 160pts (+47.2% ROI) profit, from which…

• those up in weight by 5 to 9lbs from LTO = 68/251 (27.1%) for 152.6pts (+60.8%)
• 8 yr olds are 32/112 (28.6%) for 82.7pts (+73.9%)
• 8 yr olds up in weight by 5 to 9lbs from LTO are 27/79 (34.2%) for 87.8pts (+111.1%)
• on Good to Soft ground : 19/72 (26.4%) for 65.4pts (+90.9%)
• on Good to Soft ground and up in weight by 5 to 9lbs from LTO : 17/57 (29.8%) for 62.5pts (+109.7%)
• and 8 yr olds on Good to Soft ground and up in weight by 5 to 9lbs from LTO : 4/11 (36.4%) for 17.35pts (+157.7%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Play The Ace @ 10/3 BOG which was offered by Ladbrokes & Coral at 5.25pm on Sunday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!