Stat of the Day, 28th November 2017

Monday’s Result :

2.30 Kempton : Play The Ace @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/1 Mid-division, headway to chase leaders 6th, hampered 3 out, led before next, soon challenged, hard ridden, ran on well to win by a length.

Next up is Tuesday’s…

1.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Kaaber @ 7/2 BOG

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A Class 6, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on Fibresand worth £2588 to the winner.

And an in-form 6 yr old gelding who has won two of four starts since a switch to Michael Blake’s yard. Only one of those runs was on the A/W, mind, but it did result in a course and distance win under today’s jockey Mitch Godwin last time out, 37 days ago. Mitch is now 3 from 8 on the back of this one and with past form in mind, I already liked Kaaber here.

I then went through my usual stat checklists and the horse just kept popping up all over the place, so I’m going to give you just five different strands to back this one up and I’ll keep them as brief as I can!

First up : Michael Blake’s LTO winners are 13/37 (35.1% SR) for 66.6pts (+180.1% ROI) since the start of 2015 with handicappers winning 10 of 29 (34.5%) for 68.3pts (+235.7%).

Then we have Mitch Godwin riding three winners from six rides (50% SR) for Michael Blake here at Southwell, all in handicaps and producing profits of 23.84pts at an ROI of 397.3%.

Kaaber has the (USA) suffix to his name and USA-bred males aged 4-9 yrs old are 207/1146 (18.1% SR) for 559.9pts (+48.9% ROI) in A/W handicaps at 1m6f and shorter here at Southwell since 2008, from which…

  • those with fewer than three previous runs on this track are 111/479 (23.2%) for 504pts (+105.2%)
  • in 2017 : 13/53 (24.5%) for 230.1pts (+434.2%)
  • and in 2017, those with fewer than three previous runs on this track are 7/25 (28%) for 226.1pts (+904.4%)

Kaaber is Michael’s only runner at this track today and since 2015, his solo entrants are 31/189 (16.4% SR) for 85.6pts (+45.3% ROI), from which handicappers are 26/156 (16.7%) for 100.7pts (+64.6%), whilst here at Southwell it’s 5/13 (38.5%) for 32.32pts (+248.6%) all in handicaps.

And I’ll complete the circle by briefly discussing the sire, Daaher, whose offspring are 11/78 (14.1% SR) for 45.2pts (+58% ROI), including…

  • at Class 6 : 5/29 (17.2%) for 40.7pts (+140.3%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 4/20 (20%) for 46.9pts (+234.5%)
  • and over 6 furlongs = 4/18 (22.2%) for 48.9pts (+271.6%)

AND 5/6 yr olds racing over 6f at Class 6 are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 59.9pts (+855.6% ROI), a stat slightly skewed by the fact that all 7 runs were by Kaaber! And of those 7 runs, Mitch Godwin has 3 winners from 4 (75% SR) for 53.97pts (+1352% ROI), taking us back to where we started!

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Kaaber @ 7/2 BOG which was generally available at 6.40pm on Monday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.10 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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