Stat of the Day, 29th November 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

1.10 Southwell : Kaaber @ 7/2 BOG 13th at 5/2 Mid-division, weakened halfway.

Next up is Wednesday’s…

3.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Skyva @ 6/1 BOG

A Class 6, 2yo A/W Handicap (Nursery) over 6f on Tapeta worth £2588 to the winner.

A fairly simple and straightforward one today…

Trainer Brian Ellison’s record here at Wolverhampton stands at 60 winners from 455 (13.2% SR) for 39.2pts (+8.61% ROI) and whilst those returns seem a little low, to return over 8.5% from blindly backing over 450 runners is actually pretty good going.

To improve those numbers, we will of course introduce some simple yet logical filters that are relevant to today’s contest, such as…

  • males are 52/360 (14.4%) for 70.9pts (+19.7%)
  • in handicaps : 40/330 (12.1%) for 35.6pts (+10.8%)
  • over trips of 6 to 9.5 furlongs : 41/284 (14.4%) for 68.2pts (+24%)
  • at Class 6 : 36/208 (17.3%) for 94.6pts (+45.5%)
  • over 6 furlongs : 8/61 (13.1%) for 21.4pts (+35.2%)
  • and those ridden by today’s jockey, Ben Robinson are 4/12 (33.3%) for 26.67pts (+222.2%)

AND…from the above, males in Class 5/6 handicaps over 6 to 9.5 furlongs are 24/119 (20.2% SR) for 97pts (+81.5% ROI), from which…

  • at Class 6 : 16/74 (21.6%) for 71.7pts (+96.9%)
  • over 6f : 4/19 (21.1%) for 30pts (+157.7%)
  • and at Class 6 over 6f = 4/16 (25%) for 33pts (+206%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Skyva @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfred, Marathon & Totesport at 5.50pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were going half a point bigger at 13/2 BOG! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.55 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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