Race of the Day – 30 November 2017

Race of the Day – 14:40 Towcester

The Trainer Snippets report shows that Martin Keighly has a decent record with last time out winners. He’s had 11 winners (28.95%) and 18 places (47.37%) from his last 38 such runners, for level stakes profits of 56.75 and 65.42 respectively. This has also produced an Impact Value of 1.54.

He runs Spice Girl in a mares’ maiden hurdle at Towcester today, and she is looking for a four-timer having won three bumpers over the summer.

Her three bumper wins were all on good ground and over two miles (today’s going and distance), and interestingly she wasn’t favourite on any of those three starts, which perhaps is an indication of how the market treats horses for slightly ‘lesser’ stables.

She won her latest bumper at Uttoxeter easily by ten lengths, and the second in that race has come out and won since.

Richard Johnson is on board again today (as he was for the first of her three wins), and he has a useful record here at Towcester. Over the past five years, he’s had ten winners (22.73%) and 20 places (45.45%) from 44 runners, for level stakes profits of 23.16 and 22.74 respectively and an Impact Value of 1.94.

Spice Girl’s sire, Black Sam Bellamy, has a reasonable record with runners over jumps between three and five years old. From a good sample of 333 runners, he’s produced 46 winners (13.81%) and 120 places (36.04%) for level stakes profits of 24.32 and 46.44 respectively.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have the best record, with 16.31% of them going on to win the race. It’s not a huge bias, however, and has produced a small level stakes loss.

The David Pipe trained Timeforben has the highest pace score based on the limited runs of some of these so far.

Spice Girl has been settled around mid-division in her runs so far and it would be no surprise to see Johnson do the same here, and try to track anything that looks dangerous.

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