Stat of the Day, 1st December 2017

Thursday’s Result :

1.20 Taunton : Silent Steps @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Led to 3rd, remained with leader, led before 2 out, soon pushed along and outpaced, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by just three quarters of a length.

So no winning end to November, but a small profit was made over the month and we now kick off December with Friday’s…

2.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Tellovoi @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 6, A/W Handicap over 1m on Polytrack worth £2588 to the winner.

A 9 yr old gelding, 2lbs the right side of the weights who came very close Newcastle a week ago despite missing the break, which is far from ideal over 7f! That said he finished the strongest, managing to get within a length of a winner who he was conceding weight to. An extra furlong that day would have seen him win and he gets that extension here today.

He’s already got 2 wins and 3 places from 9 starts here and his overall A/W record includes…

  • 4 wins and a place from 9 runs in December/January
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 9 runs over 1m
  • 3 wins and a place from 7 priced at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 5 when sent off as favourite
  • 2 wins and 4 places from 7 at Class 6
  • 2 wins from 3 in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 1 win and 1 place from 3 over course and distance
  • and 1 win and 1 place from 3 within a week of his last run.

In addition to the above, it’s certainly worth noting that in A/W handicaps here at Southwell since the start of 2014, 6-10 yr old males who had the highest Official Rating in the race have won 61 of 300 (20.3% SR) for 165.3pts (+55.1% ROI) after running in a handicap last time out.

Of these 300 “top weights”…

  • Class 4 to 6 runners are 56/270 (20.7%) for 173.1pts (+64.1%)
  • in fields of 5 to 11 runners : 55/239 (23%) for 155.5pts (+65.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 28/133 (21.1%) for 45.2pts (+34%)
  • running within 6-10 days of last run : 23/62 (37.1%) for 59.6pts (+96.1%)
  • LTO runners-up are 8/33 (24.2%) for 54.4pts (+164.8%)
  • and those beaten by 0.25 to 1 length LTO are 4/16 (25%) for 28.5pts (+177.9%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Tellovoi @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Thursday, but there was some 10/3 BOG (Sky) and some 3/1 non-BOG until Morning (Betfred/Totesport) around for those able to take advantage.

I’m on with Sky, but in the interests of fairness and transparency I’ll be recording an 11/4 BOG bet for the records. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.10 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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