Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2017

Friday’s Result :

2.10 Southwell : Tellovoi @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 3/1 Soon led, ridden and headed over 2f out, weakened final furlong.

We end a satisfactory week with Saturday’s…

2.25 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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High Bridge @ 10/3 BOG

A Listed Limited Handicap Hurdle over 2m 0.5f on Soft ground worth £28,475 to the winner.

This 6yr old gelding was a very creditable third in a similar contest to this at Ascot four weeks ago, when outpaced late on in a two length defeat on unsuitably good ground. He was also coming off an absence of 235 days, so the benefit of having had a run allied to a return to is preferred soft ground should see him fare today.

He has 5 wins and 3 places from 10 NH starts so far and the make-up of his racing history to date suggests he’ll go well today, as from those 10 races, he has the following of relevance today…

  • 4 wins and a place from 7 going left handed (3/4 over hurdles)
  • 4 wins and a place from 6 when ridden by Alex Ferguson (3+1/5 over hurdles)
  • 3 wins and a place from 5 trained by Ben Pauling (3+1/5 over hurdles)
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 over 2m0.5f (2/3 over hurdles)
  • 4/4 after a break of 16-30 days (2/2 over hurdles)
  • 3/3 in fields of 5-10 runners (1/1 over hurdles)
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 soft ground runs (1/1 over hurdles)
  • 2/2 here at Newbury (both over hurdles)
  • 2/2 over course and distance (both over hurdles)
  • and 2/2 in December (1/1 over hurdles)

Ben Pauling’s horses are in great form too, winning 8 of 24 (33.3%) over the last fortnight and 4/14 (28.6%) in the past week, whilst in his admittedly short career to date, he is 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 3.24pts (+12.5% ROI) here at Newbury, including…

  • on Soft ground : 6/14 (42.9%) for 11.72pts (+83.7%)
  • at odds shorter than 5/1 : 6/9 (66.6%) for 9.07pts (+100.7%)
  • after a break of 26-60 days : 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.67pts (+83.4%)
  • in December : 4/7 957.1%) for 6.07pts (+86.8%)
  • at Class 1 : 2/4 (50%) for 8.54pts (+213.4%)
  • beaten by no more than 4 lengths LTO : 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.13pts (+171%)
  • with jockey Alex Ferguson : 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.65pts (+88.3%)
  • and in Listed races : 1/2 (50%) for 9.17pts (+458.5%) us… a 1pt win bet on High Bridge @ 10/3 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Boylesports at 6.45pm on Friday, whilst Ladbrokes match this price, but don’t/won’t go BOG until the morning of the race. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.25 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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